ANALYSIS: Wet weather forecast for tomorrow could bring a lower than expected turnout in the general election.
Met Éireann has said it expects damp, muggy conditions to affect most of the country, particularly in Dublin and other parts of the east coast, where turnout could have a major influence on the outcome.
Met Éireann forecaster Mr Vincent O'Shea said last night it was "virtually certain" all parts of the country would have rain at some stage tomorrow, "although we can't be exact about the timing at the moment".
He said "all parts of the country will have a wet start to the day. That may build up to quite heavy rainfall before most places dry up, hopefully by around teatime."
About half an inch of rain, in muggy, cloudy conditions, is predicted for the midlands and east coast. The rain is expected to give rise to difficult and possibly dangerous road conditions.
"If anything good can be said about Friday it's that it should be a relatively mild day with practically no wind," he said. Temperatures are expected to reach 18-20 degrees, with hot, sunny spells quickly replacing the showers as the day goes on.
Mr O'Shea said the rain should clear in a south-west to north-easterly direction.
"Munster will probably be the first place to clear, possibly by late morning rather than early afternoon. There is a chance the day might even start dry in Kerry and west Munster." But "the signs are that clearance won't arise in Dublin until around 6 p.m."
If so, a late rush to the polls tomorrow evening could be expected. Last-minute voters will be facilitated by a decision to leave polling booths open until 10.30 p.m.
Mr O'Shea added: "If we want to be pessimistic we can look at one of our computer models which shows there will be 13 mm of rain in the south, south midlands and east. That's very heavy rainfall."
However, he said, even on the east coast, "it's highly unlikely that it's still going to be raining by evening-time, when most people will want to go polling. There is only a small risk it won't be dry by then."
Mr O'Shea stressed the forecast was preliminary, adding it was difficult to predict the exact timing of showers. Early outbreaks of rain are expected tonight, spreading east from west Munster and Connacht.
The turnout in general elections has declined dramatically, from 73.33 per cent of voters in 1987 to 68.51 per cent in 1989. A further fall was recorded over the last two elections, from 68.49 per cent in 1992 to 65.92 per cent in 1997.
