FF's improvement is no surprise, writes Ian McShane, managing director TNS mrbi
The last Irish Times/TNS mrbi political opinion poll was conducted in September of 2003 and produced a deeply worrying set of findings for the Government, Fianna Fáil and the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern.
Indeed, Fianna Fáil's core support figure of 27 percentage points was the lowest registered by that party since the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion polling series began in 1982.
It was further noted at the time that the combined Fine Gael, Labour and Green Party first preference vote stood at 45 per cent, just short of the 46 per cent which returned a coalition majority for Fianna Fáil and the PDs the year before. In short, the Opposition was breathing down the Government's neck as it faced into a number of elections in 2004.
As such, today's poll is the first in what will be from a political perspective an event-filled year, incorporating the local government and European Parliament elections in June, and a likely Presidential election in November.
Developments which might be expected to have benefited the Opposition parties in the months prior to this week's survey include the launch of Fine Gael's much-publicised website, "ripoff.ie", an initiative aimed at tapping into consumers' growing resentment at what is perceived as a concerted effort by retailers and publicans to charge inflated prices.
We have also witnessed a widening of the health service debate to encompass the implications of a number of specific instances of deaths at regional hospitals around the country.
Other issues which continued to dominate pub conversation included ever-increasing house prices, roads and transport, and violent street crime. It is, however, also fair to say that the intensity of domestic political debate had abated somewhat over the last two to three months, not least due to the calming effects of the Christmas Dáil recess. Similarly, last September's poll was taken following a litany of political and personal PR disasters for the Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, over the summer period, culminating in his lowest-ever satisfaction rating of just 27 per cent.
It is therefore perhaps not surprising that today's poll indicates an 11-point uplift in satisfaction for both the Government and Mr Ahern, with all other party leaders entering the new year with a less dramatic, yet significant, improvement in their standing.
While the Government may take some comfort from these ratings, they are still only on a par with those registered in September 2002 following the Government's sudden and dramatic fall from grace with the electorate.
Fine Gael support, at 21 per cent, has in effect remained static since the party's 2002 election showing. Meanwhile, Enda Kenny's slow rise in personal satisfaction is more pronounced in rural areas, amongst the farming community and within the 50 years plus age grouping.
While this will be welcome news in its own right, attention still needs to be focused on Dublin in particular.
The Labour Party should still be pleased with its core support figure of 14 per cent (17 per cent adjusted), and has consolidated its standing of late in the 35-64 year category, with half of its support now deriving from the middle to upper ABC1 social class. Support for the PDs, Green Party and Independents has settled back down to general election levels.
While all of the shifts in party support since the last poll conducted five months ago are statistically insignificant, the steady growth of Sinn Féin support over the last 18 months has been remarkable (see Table D). The May 13th 2002 Irish Times/TNS mrbi pre-election poll indicated 7 per cent support for Sinn Féin, which is the precise percentage of the first preference vote the party garnered at the general election four days later.
This May poll was based on the ballot paper technique and, as such, measured Sinn Féin support only in those constituencies where the party ran a candidate. The first post-election poll, conducted in September 2002 and measuring Sinn Féin party support across all 41 constituencies, registered 8 per cent support nationwide, pretty much on a par with its general election performance.
During the intervening period however, support for Sinn Féin has grown consistently, to the point where one in eight of all electors now claim they would grant the party their first preference vote in the event of a general election.
In effect, support for the party has almost doubled within 18 months. Clear examination of the data in Table D reveals that the party is now strongest in the Dublin area (significantly more so than, for example, Connacht/Ulster, which would have traditionally been its stronghold), followed closely by the "Rest of Leinster" region.
The party is clearly appealing to the electorate in relation to the fears and concerns of today's urban dweller.
The party has always been involved in anti-drugs groups, for example, and has been increasingly vocal at a local level with regard to the provision of affordable housing, improvements to infrastructure etc.
The fact that it has now extended its appeal to the Rest of Leinster may well be a function of the growing number of residents of Kildare, Meath, Wicklow, Louth etc. who perceive themselves to be inhabitants of what has in effect become the vast Dublin sprawl, with the same social and economic concerns as their counterparts in the capital. The second point to make in relation to demographic groupings is that Sinn Féin is now at least as popular amongst 25-34-year-olds as it is within the 18-24-year-old category.
While heavily biased towards male voters, it can no longer be assumed that the party is appealing primarily on the grounds of youthful exuberance and naivety.
The question is how these high levels of support are likely to manifest themselves in electoral terms over the next number of years.
The party has undoubtedly benefited from its recent successes in the Northern Assembly elections, and is consciously attempting to carry this sense of momentum through to next June's local and European elections in the South. It is no coincidence, for example, that many recent TV clips of Gerry Adams's involvement in the renegotiation of the Belfast Agreement have also included their Dublin European election candidate, Mary Lou McDonald.
While Ms McDonald will poll well in Dublin, the party's real focus will be on increasing its number of local government representatives around the Republic.
Experience in Northern Ireland has shown that once a Sinn Féin local representative gains a foothold in a particular constituency, the formidable party machine immediately swings into action on the ground, with voters relentlessly targeted through a mix of community involvement, door-to-door leafleting, with in some cases younger voters even being sent birthday cards from the party based on information gleaned from the Register of Electors. As such, Sinn Féin's tally of five Dáil seats at the 2002 election could well increase to seven or eight by 2007, with the political pariahs of the 1970s and 1980s conceivably serving in government by 2012.