Analysis:Liam Lawlor's death overshadowed an ardfheis meant to mark a fightback, writes Mark Hennessy
Months of work had gone into preparing Fianna Fáil's Killarney ardfheis, designed to launch a fightback following the Government's dreadful summer.
Instead of being under the cosh about prices and spending, Fianna Fáil would portray itself as the party which would maintain prosperity and warn the public, gently enough for now, that the Opposition would endanger this.
Few in Fianna Fáil believed that the message had a prayer of being accepted simply over one weekend, but the hope was that, if begun properly, it would seep into the public consciousness over the next year.
The strategy was evident and coherent, if not a little shameless in parts, during the ardfheis session in the Gleneagles Hotel on Saturday morning.
However, the plan unravelled shortly before noon, as word filtered around the hotel that Liam Lawlor had been killed in a car crash in Moscow.
Instead of putting forward his own agenda, Taoiseach Bertie Ahern found himself expressing sympathy for his old colleague, who was eventually forced to resign from the party.
Instead of putting forward a message for the future, Ahern found himself dealing, as obliquely as he could manage, with the politics of the quiet deal, the brown envelope and secret foreign bank accounts.
However, while Lawlor is part of what Fianna Fáil describes as "the past" - one better forgotten - the party has less trouble continuing with its rehabilitation of former taoiseach Charles J Haughey. Few in Killarney saw any connection.
Although interrupted by Lawlor's passing, Fianna Fáil's "change-is-dangerous" strategy will resume quickly now that the general election is less than 18 months away.
Privately, most senior Fianna Fáil figures accept losses are inevitable. The scale of the challenge is daunting. Its share of the first-preference vote will drop. So, too, will the share of the transfers the party has managed to secure under Ahern.
For example, barring an extraordinary change, Fianna Fáil could lose four seats in Cork city and county alone: Cork South West, Cork North Central, Cork South Central and Cork North West.
A trawl through other constituencies is equally disturbing. With the loss of just 3 per cent of the party's first- preference vote, Fianna Fáil TDs would fall like ninepins.
Everything depends now on Minister for Finance Brian Cowen, as could be seen in the standing ovation given to him by delegates even before he delivered his speech on Saturday afternoon. Last year, he had little time to put his own stamp on the budget, given that he took over in the Department of Finance at the end of September. This year, he must do so.
Cowen's budget must be visionary, generous and devoid of the kind of blunders which have appeared in the 48 hours after some budget day speeches.
If he can meet the expectations, Fianna Fáil may be able to seize on the contradictions in the Opposition's policies, assuming that the electorate is still prepared to listen.
In particular, Fianna Fáil ministers have pounced gleefully on the apparent preference of Labour leader Pat Rabbitte for increases in capital gains taxes, which Fine Gael opposes. In addition, they point out that Fine Gael and Labour differ from the possible third tier of the "rainbow", the Greens, on future corporation tax rates.
Although the business community is already showing signs of nervousness about the make-up of a rainbow coalition, the danger here is that Fianna Fáil will be seen as favouring the rich.
Nevertheless, the party is confident that in time, the message about the threats posed by change - by "Buggin's Turn", in the words of Minister John O'Donoghue - can be sold to the carpenter, plumber and electrician and not just to men in suits.
In particular, the Greens are in for a rude awakening to the realities of politics. In 1997, Fianna Fáil managed to eat into Fine Gael's farming support during the course of the campaign by ruthlessly attacking Democratic Left.
Fine Gael's hopes for gains in key rural constituencies will be threatened next time if a similar strategy against the Greens has equal success.
Fianna Fáil's obsession with the threat posed by Sinn Féin was evident throughout the ardfheis, even down to the backdrop of the provincial flags chosen for the traditional music session provided for delegates as they filed in for Ahern's presidential address.
The resumption of the Easter Rising ceremony outside the GPO in Dublin next year is but a part of the attempt to seize back the mantle of republicanism from Sinn Féin. Clearly, the strategy could backfire. By trying to "outShinner the Shinners", it could simply increase voter interest in such issues, to the benefit of Gerry Adams.
Fortunately for Fianna Fáil, the general election is not going to be held next week. If it was, disaster would be inevitable.
Instead, Cowen was quick to drive home the message that Fianna Fáil was not yet on an election footing, that two budgets remained and that much work was still to be done.
Although the prevailing political winds are against him, Ahern has time, but he will need every one of those days to secure a third term in office.