Cowen tries to create positive message on EU treaty

ANALYSIS: Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday moved to seize back control of the campaign on the Lisbon Treaty, writes MARK HENNESSEY…

ANALYSIS:Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday moved to seize back control of the campaign on the Lisbon Treaty, writes MARK HENNESSEYPolitical Correspondent.

FRESH FROM homecoming celebrations in his constituency, Taoiseach Brian Cowen yesterday got down to the important item on his in-tray - the Lisbon Treaty.

And work needs to be done. For several months, the No campaign has managed to put out its message more directly and more often, and with some success.

Now, however, Cowen is determined to be the one with the positive message, painting the No camp as Little Irelanders, with little confidence in the people.

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The strategy is not accidental. So far, the Yes campaign has been forced into explanations and defensive manoeuvres to counter calls for the Lisbon Treaty's rejection.

Cowen's action allows the Yes campaign to go on the offensive, and makes it easier for his own people to go out and persuade.

Under new management, Fianna Fáil seems set for a period where performance will be rewarded, and slackers penalised.

Following the first Nice Treaty referendum, a Minister, Eamon Ó Cuív, acknowledged that he had voted No.

Back then, Bertie Ahern was furious, but did nothing.

This time around, Cowen has made it clear that "conscientious objectors" can do so without the Fianna Fáil party whip, and office.

Conceding that his succession to the party leadership, and Bertie Ahern's departure, had dominated the party's attention over the past month, he denied that it was starting its campaign late.

Instead, Cowen and others in Fianna Fáil argue that voters, busy with their own lives, have time to engage with a four-week campaign but little more.

The Yes campaign has been energised by the results of the latest Sunday Business Post opinion poll, which showed a 10 percentage point gap between the two sides.

In truth, the gap is little enough, but it does, at least, not mirror the first Nice Treaty campaign when the ball went away from the Yes side, and was never recovered.

Clearly conscious of the damage the Irish Farmers' Association's campaign on the world trade talks is doing, he talked to farmers in a language all can understand - money.

In coming months, the Government will be pushing for an extra milk quota for Irish farmers and for simpler rules for the single farm payment scheme.

Backed by a Yes vote, Ministers will have a stronger negotiating hand going in to such talks. Without it, they will not even have an opening pair.

In any event, he warned them not to destroy Lisbon because of their fears of the WTO talks - which may not end in agreement.

Cowen is offering one other carrot, that a Yes vote now will ensure there are no other EU referendums for the best part of a generation.

Such an scenario has attractions. Both voters and politicians - with the exception of those on the No side - are weary of them.

Interestingly, however, he avoided answering a question about what would happen if voters said No, and whether they would simply face another referendum later.

In time, it will prove one of the questions of the campaign. And Cowen will not be able to avoid answering it; or, at least, avoid it and expect voters not to notice.