The European Commission is expected to deliver a stinging rebuke to Turkey today citing the government's failure to make the necessary economic and social reforms for EU membership.
The worst offence has been a refusal by Turkey to open its ports to ships from Cyprus — an EU member but not recognised in Ankara because of the long-running Turkish-Greek dispute over the divided island.
Minority Rights Group
The Commission has been considering a controversial partial suspension of the official EU membership negotiations with Ankara.
But Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso and his Commissioner in charge of EU enlargement, Olli Rehn, have been arguing hotly against any move that could set back relations with a strategic ally for years.
But France and Cyprus are leading calls for severe warning action against Ankara to signal that membership — not likely for a decade or more in any case — is not an automatic right.
Cyprus in particular has warned that it will use its veto over Turkish membership for as long as Ankara refuses to recognise Cyprus and open its ports.
And opponents of any more EU expansion have seized on the dispute to question the EU's general "absorption capacity" — its ability to cope with any more members.
Romania and Bulgaria have just been given the green light to join as planned at the start of next year, brining the club strength to 27 countries.
However, EU rules forbid any more joining until club rules have been streamlined to ensure the sheer scale of the EU does not result in decision-taking and administrative gridlock.
The necessary measures are tied up in the EU constitution, scuppered by French and Dutch referendum votes more than a year ago. And with no plan yet devised for resolving that dilemma, the EU's long-term expansion plans are unclear.
Turkey, however, has been knocking at the door for 40 years, and the strategic advantage of bringing a majority Muslim nation into the fold has been driving efforts to encourage Ankara to recognise the need for major reforms, not least on free speech.
Meanwhile, international human rights campaigners Minority Rights Group claimed abuses against minorities in Turkey were increasing amidst rising religious and nationalist extremism.
Turkey was also "dragging its feet" over urgent human rights reforms. MRG Director of International Advocacy, Clive Baldwin, said: "If Turkey is to succeed in its goal of joining the European Union, it must do so in a way which realises the human rights of all its citizens — that includes those from marginalised, minority communities."
The Commission is expected to stop short of recommending suspending part of the Turkish accession dossier, giving more time for a change of heart in Ankara ahead of a December summit of EU leaders which will consider what action to take.
PA