The approach of any presidential election in Nigeria is always welcomed with pomp, pageantry and wild enthusiasm by the citizens, hungry for democracy. Sadly, history shows that the promise and hopes are rarely fulfilled.
Since gaining independence from Britain in 1960, Nigeria has been ruled by military regimes for 28 of those 38 years. The military seize power with the promise of a greater democracy, which doesn't materialise. Nevertheless, recent local and state elections have been held and while both the National Assembly and presidential elections on February 20th and 27th, respectively, will also go ahead, will they usher in a democratic Nigeria?
The last presidential election in 1993 - the fairest so far in the history of the country - was annulled by a former dictator, Gen Ibrahim Babangida, who ruled the country for eight years. The election was believed to have been won by the millionaire businessman Chief Moshood Abiola. But he was immediately arrested, and remained in jail without trial until he died in July 1998.
His death came after that of Gen Sani Abacha, who earlier had overthrown a three-month interim government appointed by Gen Babangida, on his resignation in 1993. Gen Abacha's brutal regime was marked by rights abuses. He also planned to transform himself into an elected president, before he died in mid-1998 of cardiac arrest. His death gave new hope to Nigerians.
Gen Abdusalami Abubakar succeeded Gen Abacha last year and quickly announced a transition timetable to culminate in his handing over to a democratic president in May of this year. This promise led to the recent elections for both states and local councils and to this month's long-awaited elections.
The battle for the presidency is between the centrist People's Democratic Party (PDP) and an alliance of the right-of-centre All Peoples Party (APP) and the radical AD - Alliance for Democracy.
The APP-AD joint candidate is from south-west Yoruba, Chief Olu Falae, a former finance minister and former head of the Nigerian civil service. He will stand under the APP logo. Known for his administrative competence, he also enjoys the support of his people.
Thus, if integrity were the main issue in Nigerian politics, Chief Falae could be expected to win the presidency; but the military are the kingmakers and control the money that buys the votes. Added to that is the attack from the candidate nominated by the APP, Chief Ogbonnaya Onu, before Chief Falae was chosen as the alliance candidate. Chief Onu, from the south-east, and many members of the party are against the alliance.
The disillusioned south-east Igbo tribe, marginalised after its failed 1967 secession bid which resulted in the Biafra war, could be hugely influential in the presidential election outcome. Its only hope of one of the tribe becoming ruler was dashed when Chief Alex Ekwueme, a former civilian vicepresident, lost the PDP nomination to retired Gen Obasanjo, also from the south-east.
While some Igbos argue that Chief Ekwueme's defeat has disenfranchised them, others still intend to vote for the APP-AD alliance. But it is difficult to predict how this, the third largest ethnic group in the country, will vote.
There is therefore a strong belief that the PDP - which swept both the state and local government elections - will emerge victorious in the remaining elections. The key to the PDP's winning this time will be the predominantly Muslim north, where the PDP's presidential candidate is the retired Gen Olusegun Obasanjo, the only military ruler to have handed power over to an elected president - a northerner, Alhaji Shehu Shagari, 20 years ago.
Gen Obasanjo's supporters argue that his ethnic neutrality, wealth of experience, and widespread connections will be used to improve the standard of living and will be beneficial in dealing with Nigeria's complex nature.
Other politicians and political analysts believe that the national crisis will be far - very far - from resolution if he wins. The party is accused of being pro-military. Gen Obasanjo is also a close associate of the military, including retired Gen Babangida.
Whoever is elected president will have a rough time bringing about reforms. The entire political system is characterised by scores of scandals - institutional corruption, inequality, political bigotry, and inter-tribal and religious conflicts, coupled with problems of revenue allocation, the federal system structure and devolution of power.
As a Lagos-based political analyst asserted this week: "Nigeria is a spoilt place and nowadays it has become worse. The country needs a total overhauling."
At a time when civilian rule is a prospect, the constitution, after several major conferences devoted to drafting it in the past 20 years, has still not been endorsed by the military. In the absence of this, hopes for democracy enduring in Nigeria lie in the signing of a defence pact with a strong foreign power. This would ensure foreign intervention in the event of future coups.
Another protective measure against military rule would be to criminalise military coups as a treasonable offence in the constitution. Coups are illegal only when unsuccessful. A strong supportive measure would be to discipline and regionalise the armed forces.