European Diary / Jamie Smyth:British prime minister Tony Blair travels to Berlin today for talks with German chancellor Angela Merkel on the fate of the EU constitution. He can expect a warm reception from Europe's self-styled saviour.
Last week, Blair axed plans to hold a referendum in Britain on a new EU treaty which overhauls how the EU takes decisions, as long as it is not the constitutional treaty. "If it's not a constitutional treaty, so that it alters the basic relationship between Europe and the member states, then there isn't the same case for a referendum," Blair said, reversing a pledge to hold a referendum on the treaty which he made to the House of Commons. Britain would instead ratify a newly-agreed, slimmed-down treaty in its parliament, he indicated.
The policy U-turn is a significant breakthrough for Merkel. Blair's announcement removes one of the biggest obstacles facing the German presidency's attempts to renegotiate the EU constitution and get a new text agreed and ratified by mid-2009.
Most analysts believe that winning a referendum on Europe in Britain is impossible. "The momentum is not with pro-Europeans in Britain," says Hugo Brady, analyst with the Centre for European Reform, a London-based think-tank. "In recent years the euro-sceptic lobby and media have reorganised, regrouped and become more sophisticated, while pro-Europeans are in disarray."
Blair's announcement is significant because it could create wriggle room for other European leaders to choose parliamentary ratification over referendums for a new text. It was no coincidence that Blair made his comments after meeting Dutch prime minister Jan Peter Balkenende last week.
Balkenende, who presided over the Dutch public's rejection of the EU constitution in June 2005, also favours a "mini-treaty" rather than a constitution. By presenting an agreed treaty as a tidying-up exercise which does not fundamentally alter the balance of power between Brussels and nation states, he could push it through parliament.
Avoiding risky referendums on a new treaty is a key strategy being pursued by EU chiefs such as Merkel and by commission president Jose Manuel Barroso. In the Netherlands, recently, Barroso warned that referendums made the process of approving EU treaties "more complicated" and "less predictable".
EU officials argue that polls become victims of domestic politics rather than a true snapshot of opinion on European institutional change.
There are signs that some European leaders are taking the advice on board. Denmark, which traditionally holds referendums on new European treaties, may not need to hold a vote on a new slimmed-down treaty, according to Danish prime minister Anders Fogh Rasmussen.
Sunday's first round in the French presidential election increases the likelihood that Nicolas Sarkozy will be at the helm. He has pledged to work towards a "mini-treaty" which could be passed by parliament, a move that could generate further momentum for the growing "no referendum" camp among Europe's political elite.
It is possible that Ireland will be the only state to hold a referendum on a slimmed-down EU treaty. In 1987, the Supreme Court found that any treaty which transfers sovereign powers to Brussels would have to be subject to a referendum. Legal scholars still debate the scope of the Crotty judgment, but it would be a brave Irish politician who suggested dropping the need for a poll on a new EU treaty.
The key factor for the Danes, Czechs, Poles and the British (Gordon Brown will soon take over from Blair) is how different the new treaty will be from the EU constitution. Simply renaming and repackaging the treaty in an attempt to avoid a referendum would leave European leaders exposed to allegations of bringing it in "by the back door".
Berlin is already preparing to make presentational changes in an effort to get an agreement, but it remains to be seen how far Merkel will depart from the substance of a constitution which has already been ratified by 18 European states to clinch a political deal.
Talks on the content of a new treaty begin this week in Berlin, with several compromises on offer to tempt the sceptics.
For example, the term "constitution" is likely to be axed, along with symbols which relate to sovereignty, such as the EU flag, anthem and motto. The charter of fundamental rights may be replaced by an annex to the treaty, while the Dutch may get to add the Copenhagen principles - accession criteria which relate to human rights and democracy - to the draft text. This would raise the bar for Turkey's EU accession, a controversial topic in the Netherlands.
Yet difficulties remain. Poland is insisting on reopening a debate on the "voting weights" accorded to each state for EU decisions. Merkel vociferously opposes this, arguing that reopening the debate could cause the negotiation to unravel completely. For the time being, most EU states agree, leaving Warsaw isolated.
With Germany's EU presidency entering its crucial final two months, the chancellor's plan to get a new treaty ratified by 2009 is looking healthier now than it did in January. Yet, as Blair knows only too well, politics is a tricky business, and there is still some distance to travel before Merkel can claim to have solved Europe's constitutional conundrum.