Concerns that the dissident republicans who carried out the Omagh bombing were again considering a renewed bombing campaign in Northern Ireland rose last Thursday after people in the area of south Armagh between Crossmaglen and Forkhill reported hearing two loud explosions in quick succession at about 2 a.m.
Both sets of security forces checked land on either side of the Border that day for traces of explosions and the area was overflown by observer helicopters, but nothing was found. There are strong suspicions that dissident republicans in south Armagh are again preparing bombs or mortars and that the two explosions heard were test-firing explosives.
The late-night explosions in south Armagh are reminiscent of events in the same area which preceded the Omagh atrocity on August 15th. The Omagh bomb, gardai believe, was assembled in south Armagh. In the months before, there were a number of mysterious late-night explosions which later were found to have been test bombings.
On June 22nd, there was a huge landmine explosion on the Fork hill to Newry Road. That explosion baffled the security forces but it appeared later that the group responsible for the Omagh bombing, known as the "Real IRA", had set off the large landmine.
The "Real IRA" also tried using mortars a number of times, the last being on July 23rd when a 200 lb mortar misfired in the centre of Newry. (Had the device gone off it, too, could have caused multiple civilian injuries.)
There are some suspicions that two explosions in rapid succession might mean the dissidents were test-firing a twin-mortar device. The "Real IRA" also fired two mortar bombs at the British army base in Forkhill, south Armagh on March 24th. It is possible that the explosions on Thursday were part of an attack on one of the military observation posts in south Armagh and that the mortars missed their target.
There has been no statement from any group but Garda sources say it has to be assumed the explosions denote another bout of activity by the dissident republicans in the area.
Gardai were apparently aware of a pending threat as patrols were stepped up some weeks ago in the north Louth-Monaghan area and security force activity on the Nor thern side of the Border was also increased. The Garda's Emergency Response Unit, the special armed group which figured prominently in several successful operations against the "Real IRA" in the early part of the year, has also been sent to help in the security operations along the Border.
It appears uncertain exactly who is posing the threat to renew a bombing campaign but gardai are aware that there is a persistent dissident element which is most active in the area between Dundalk and south Armagh. The "Real IRA", which is led by a Dundalk man in his mid-40s, declared a ceasefire after the Omagh bombing but gardai believe this was a temporary move and it was always its intention to restart its campaign.
It has been expected that the group would launch another at tack either at the year's end or at the start of the new year to announce its renewal of "military" activity.
There is some confusion about who exactly is behind the latest threat from the dissidents. There does appear to have been an increase in tension in the south Armagh area between pro-ceasefire IRA elements and the dissidents.
There are persistent reports that the group styling itself the Continuity IRA, which has links to the splinter political party Republican Sinn Fein, has attracted disaffected IRA members in south Armagh and that the Continuity IRA and "Real IRA" are merging.
While Republican Sinn Fein denies any contact with the political group associated with the "Real IRA", gardai on the Border suspect there are local connections between the two groups.
There are also reports that former members of another splinter republican group, the Irish National Liberation Army, have joined other dissidents in south Armagh since the INLA declared its ceasefire two months ago.
Whatever the make-up of the dissident group, gardai believe it is still sufficiently volatile to merit a step-up in security over the holiday period.