Dublin Mid West:This is a constituency which offers excitement, competition and apathy, writes Eoin McVey
Ask about voting intentions in Dublin Mid West and the answer is often that the person has no intention of voting. Some parts of the constituency are overrun with canvassers and some are almost ignored. Areas like Quarryvale and north Clondalkin can see turnout fall to as low as 25 per cent.
The parties, especially the older ones, are failing to establish a presence in the sprawling housing developments. Fine Gael has one councillor in Clondalkin and none in Lucan. Fianna Fáil doesn't have a councillor in either. Two of Lucan's four councillors are Independents.
This is another constituency where population growth - along with the incorporation of Quarryvale and north Clondalkin - has produced an extra seat; going up from three to four. There are three sitting TDs and all are likely to be re-elected. The strongest - and certain to top the poll again - is Fianna Fáil's John Curran.
He may be followed home by the Green Party's Paul Gogarty, whose base is Lucan but who has support throughout the constituency, helped by his strong GAA involvement. Gogarty is not a typical Green, seldom heard on environmental matters but trenchant on local issues..
The third sitting TD is, of course, Mary Harney. Three weeks ago, few expected her to hold her seat, even in PD circles. But she has a strong personal following complemented by strong campaigning, which should put her over the line.
Fianna Fáil's Luke Moriarty looks good for the fourth seat. He's a successful owner of hotels and supermarkets, has a powerful base in Palmerstown and is determined to take a second seat for his party. The party's vote management arrangement however does not appear to be working and Moriarty, despite a formidable campaign, may lose out. Fianna Fáil is not working in harmony in this constituency, a straw in the wind perhaps.
Fine Gael's Frances Fitzgerald, who was a TD for Dublin South East but lost her seat in 2002, has a chance of winning the fourth seat. She has run a well-targeted campaign since being selected 15 months ago.
Gay Mitchell picked up 20 per cent in this constituency in the European elections. Fitzgerald could capture the seat but she will need transfers and it's not apparent where they would come from in sufficient numbers.
Her principal competitor for the seat is Labour's Joanna Tuffy. She polled well in 2002 and the party did well in the local elections. Tuffy must compete with the independent Derek Keating who pulled in a remarkable 3,680 votes when topping the poll for Lucan in the local elections. Joanne Spain is running for Sinn Féin and, while her campaign has stalled, there is considerable Sinn Féin support in Clondalkin where the party's Shane O'Connor topped the poll in the local elections.
If Tuffy can pull in enough first preferences, then transfers from Keating, Spain and Gino Kenny of People before Profit might just put her ahead of Fitzgerald for the final seat but transfers don't always travel where you would expect them to. It will be very tight. On balance, the rising tide for Fine Gael may see Fitzgerald triumph.
Also running are Mick Finnegan of the Workers Party and an Independent, Jim McHale.
Verdict
FF - 1, FG - 1, PD - 1, Green - 1 FG gain