The struggle between president Mbeki and his deputy Jacob Zuma for the party leadership is being seen by some as the death of ANC idealism, writes Joe Humphreysin Pretoria.
As political comebacks go, Jacob Zuma's rise to the brink of glory this weekend takes some beating. Two years ago, he became the first politician in post-apartheid South Africa to be expelled from government over alleged corruption. A close business associate was subsequently jailed for 15 years for fraud, while Zuma himself was dragged through court on an even more damning charge of rape.
Zuma walked free from the trial but not before taking some serious blows to his reputation after confessing to, among other things, having unprotected sex with a woman whom he knew to be HIV-positive. Zuma has since been investigated for allegedly taking bribes. According to some reports, charges will be preferred early next year, and the possibility of a prison sentence looms on the horizon.
So why is he the hot favourite to become leader of the African National Congress (ANC), a post that virtually guarantees him the presidency of South Africa? The answer has much to do with his chief opponent, Thabo Mbeki, the man who sacked Zuma in 2005 and has also ostracised large sections of the party through his perceived Machiavellian leadership style. Mbeki, who took over from Nelson Mandela as party leader 10 years ago, has been likened to Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe by certain sections of the ANC's left-wing.
Certainly, Mbeki is the chalk to Zuma's cheese. A pipe-smoking intellectual, Mbeki is fond of quoting WB Yeats and, until recently, had a penchant for dressing in English tweeds - a fashion he inherited from his days in exile in Sussex. Zuma, on the other hand, is an unashamed populist.
Charismatic and typically attired in natty black suits and matching shades, he likes to jest and dance in public, often breaking into his signature tune Awuleth' uMshini Wami (Bring Me My Machine Gun) - a former anthem of struggle. He is also something of a ladies' man, having reportedly fathered 20 children by nine different women.
Ironically, Mbeki had chosen Zuma as his deputy president in 1997, on the basis he would not be a serious future threat. Recently, however, Zuma has become a lightning rod for disaffected "comrades", especially those in the trade union umbrella group Cosatu and the South African Communist Party (SACP). Both entities have a large overlapping membership with the ANC. The three groups together make up South Africa's ruling "tripartite alliance", a loose coalition of former anti-apartheid organisations.
Cosatu general secretary Zwelinzima Vavi has been a particular thorn in Mbeki's side. Having accused the president of Nazi-like authoritarianism last May, Vavi this week claimed "womanisers" in government were promoting gender parity in order to get women politicians into bed. The slur was clearly targeted at Mbeki, who made one of his female proteges deputypresident of South Africa after Zuma had been sacked.
THE INTENSITY OF mud-slinging from all sides is unprecedented in the history of the ANC, an organisation which prides itself on its unity. Even former firebrand Winnie Madikizela-Mandela has called for peace, proposing a compromise this week that would see Mbeki continuing as party president until 2009, at which point Zuma would take over.
Of more serious concern is the way in which tribalism has crept into the contest - Mbeki is a Xhosa and Zuma is a Zulu. Conscious of the threat of ethnic tensions, the ANC announced on Tuesday that it was banning all canvassing material of a personalised nature, including Zuma's trademark "100 per cent Zuluboy" T-shirts.
Just how the ANC - Africa's oldest liberation movement - has ended up in this state is a source of much dismay to people both inside and outside the party. "It's the end of an era," says Prof David Welsh, emeritus professor of political studies at the University of Cape Town. "The great men like Tambo and Mandela are gone, and we are left with a Hobson's Choice. I think the country will suffer."
He argues that "Mbeki has, in many respects, been a disastrous president, especially in his handling of the Aids crisis". But Zuma is an unknown quantity who is "going to be under enormous pressure" to embrace what Prof Welsh calls the "primitive views" of his political supporters. He notes Cosatu and the SACP want the government to return to the socialist-inspired 1955 Freedom Charter but "if there were any suggestion that would happen there would be a total drying up of foreign investment and the rand [South Africa's currency] would collapse".
Another major fear is that Zuma, if elected, would interfere with the judiciary to get any future charges against him dropped, and also possibly shield corrupt associates from the law. In some people's eyes, Mbeki has already set a precedent by sacking South Africa's head prosecutor in an alleged bid to protect controversial police chief Jackie Selebi, who also happens to be a close political ally.
"There are disquieting signs about the way things are going," says Prof Welsh. "But we are a long way off Zimbabwe, where Mugabe is obviously crazy. I don't think Zuma is crazy."
AND INDEED, THE president-in-waiting has some points in his favour. His work as a conciliator between warring Zulu factions during the transition period to democracy is widely praised. On the international front, Zuma may also be an improvement. He has hinted that he could take a stronger position on the region's biggest bully, Mugabe.
Some diplomats have also praised his openness, a quality not readily found in Mbeki, who, incidentally, may meet Bertie Ahern next month when the Taoiseach pays an official visit to South Africa.
Unimpressed by the choice at hand, some figures within the ANC are seeking a "third way", with Cyril Ramaphosa being mooted as an alternative leader. The businessman and former Northern Ireland weapons inspector has been coy about putting his name forward, however, and it now seems too late for him to make a run even if he wanted to.
Among those who have expressed support for Ramaphosa is Kader Asmal, the former head of the Irish anti-apartheid movement. In a recent speech, Asmal contrasted the ANC's current leaders with their predecessors. Praising Tambo's selfless example in particular, Asmal said: "It often saddens me to see how far from this we have moved in our current struggle for posts." He added that it was "as if individuals, the movement and its continued historic cause and calling seem to be fair game on the altar of personal ambition".
Many commentators believe the ANC is undergoing a transition similar to that experienced by other African liberation movements post-independence. Writing in a national newspaper this week, veteran South African political analyst Allister Sparks said the party's behaviour in recent weeks provided "glaring evidence that this whole struggle is not about policies or ideals but about power - about who will have it and who will wield it to whose advantage".
So who will win? "Everyone is predicting Zuma," says Prof Welsh. "But Mbeki is such a crafty in-fighter, you can't write him off. He could yet pull a rabbit out of the hat."