Senior Government sources remain hopeful that the IRA will carry out some form of decommissioning, although maybe not in time to prevent the unionist plan to collapse the Northern Ireland Assembly.
According to the sources, there is "hope rather than expectation" that the move will come in the next few weeks.
Intelligence reports suggest there has been intense debate within the IRA in the past two months about decommissioning. This began with the arrests of three Irishmen in Colombia in mid-August.
Despite weekend reports that the pro-decommissioning element within the IRA is in the ascendant, Government sources insist there is no clear picture of how the internal debate will go in the IRA.
On one side, elements that are strongly supportive of the Sinn FΘin leadership are advocating that weapons are verifiably put beyond use to the satisfaction of Gen de Chastelain's Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD).
This element is said to be reacting to pressure from the US government which expressed anger over the discovery that the IRA was involved with FARC guerrillas in Colombia.
Also the New York and Pentagon attacks on September 11th were followed by clear messages that the United States administration will no longer countenance the involvement of any group such as the IRA in international relationships with other terrorist groups.
The US President's special envoy, Mr Richard Haass, stated that he regarded the involvement of the IRA with FARC as representing the "rubric" of international terrorism.
Sinn FΘin has insisted it has had nothing to do with FARC and that its conversations with with Mr Haass were congenial and did not concern events in Colombia.
The IRA is understood to have come under pressure in the past few weeks from the ANC in South Africa which has insisted that the IRA should decommission weapons if it wishes to pursue a political path in the Irish peace process. The Sinn FΘin leader, Mr Gerry Adams, visited South Africa last week to participate in a commemoration of ANC prisoners' lives.
The anti-decommissioning element within the IRA, which is said to be headed by hardline figures in south Armagh and west Belfast, is believed to be of the opinion that there is no point in an act of decommissioning that would be seen as reacting to a Unionist ultimatum.
This argument is said to have been put forward by a veteran IRA figure from west Belfast.
While no sudden move towards decommissioning is expected, Government sources say that there is expectation that the weight of argument for decommissioning may win out.
If this happens, it is thought likely the IRA will volunteer to destroy or permanently lock up the stores of weapons that have already been inspected by the Gen de Chastelain's two independent observers, the former Finnish President, Mr Marti Atisaari and the South African ANC figure, Mr Cyril Ramaphosa.