Senior security sources still feel there is little likelihood that the IRA will surrender weapons to be collected by Gen John de Chastelain's International Independent Commission on Decommissioning and then render them unusable with oxyacetylene or industrial metal cutters.
In the four years since he came to Ireland with his associates, there is also no indication yet, despite yesterday's statement, that Gen de Chastelain has been able to see IRA weapons. Only the two international intermediaries: the former Finnish president, Mr Marti Ahtisaari, and the ANC figure Mr Cyril Ramaphosa, have been allowed to see two IRA dumps.
Mr Ahtisaari and Mr Ramaphosa inspected two dumps on three occasions, and on the second and third occasions reported that the weapons were safely stored and had not been tampered with. The last inspection was reported in late May. There has been no indication of the amount or type of weapons inspected.
There is also no indication where the arms dumps are in the Republic or in Northern Ireland, or whether they are even abroad. Security sources have indicated it is possible that the IRA has substantial arms dumps in Europe or even the United States. However, the last statement issued by the two inspectors hinted strongly that the weapons were on this island as it included a line that the last inspection had been held up because of foot-and-mouth restrictions.
The IRA first made a commitment to verifiably "put arms beyond use" in its statement of May 6th, 2000: "The full implementation, on a progressive and irreversible basis by the two governments, especially the British government, of what they have agreed will provide a political context in an enduring political process with the potential to remove the causes of conflict, and in which Irish republicans and unionists can as equals pursue our respective political objectives peacefully.
"In that context the IRA leadership will initiate a process that will completely and verifiably put IRA arms beyond use. We will do it in such a way as to avoid risk to the public and misappropriation by others and ensure maximum public confidence." That statement added: "In this context, the IRA leadership has agreed to put in place within weeks a confidence-building measure to confirm that our weapons remain secure. The contents of a number of our arms dumps will be inspected by agreed third parties who will report that they have done so to the Independent International Commission."
This statement is believed to contain as much of the process as the IRA intends to make public, that it will allow the "third parties", Mr Ahtisaari and Mr Ramaphosa, to carry out an inspection to verify that arms have been put beyond use and that they will then report to Gen de Chastelain. The general will then, it seems, issue a statement based on the information given to him by the two third-party inspectors.
Security sources say there is nothing yet to suggest that the IRA has reached a situation where it is prepared publicly to surrender or destroy weapons.
However, it is accepted that the act of pouring concrete, or in some similar way rendering weapons unusable to the satisfaction of third parties, would be a momentous move for the IRA. The organisation, in its various incarnations, has never previously surrendered or destroyed weapons.
It is also known that there have been strong emotional reactions to any idea of destruction of weapons among many rank-and-file IRA people. The line from the IRA membership is reported to have been consistently "not a bullet, not an ounce" in regard to surrendering any of its stock of firearms and explosives.
Whatever moves are made in regard to satisfying the two inspectors and Gen de Chastelain, it is clear the IRA is not intending to disarm itself fully. It continued to import arms into the Republic from a supply route set up in Florida in 1998 and 1999 after its political wing, Sinn Fein, had signed the Belfast Agreement.
On June 8th last, an IRA gang stole more than 100 rifles and shotguns from an arms dealer in Athlone, Co Westmeath. The armed gang held the man's wife and young children hostage while they forced him to open his shop and surrender the weapons. The IRA has also continued to use weapons, shooting dead up to 20 people since the Belfast Agreement and carrying out robberies and other illegal fundraising activities including the smuggling and handling of large amounts of stolen or untaxed tobacco and alcohol.
As part of these activities it tends to need only handguns, shotguns or sub-machine-guns. It is thought most likely the IRA feels it can forgo the infantry weapons, such as the large stock of AK47 assault rifles, heavy machine-guns and rockets which it received from its sponsor, the government of Col Moamar Gadafy in Libya, during the 1980s. These infantry weapons became largely surplus to the IRA's campaign as it began designing its own rockets and perfected highly efficient bombs and incendiary devices.
The key element of its arms store was the estimated six tonnes of the Czech-manufactured Semtex H plastic explosive which also came from Libya. The Semtex was heavily used in the IRA's bomb factories in the manufacture of missiles and "booster" charges for bombs. It may still possess three tonnes of this explosive which has a store life of 35 years.