AT ONE time it was believed in England that the Feast of St Simon and St Jude, October 28th, was almost certain to be wet. It was a notion that was not without foundation, since in the region that Londoners like to refer to as the Home Counties, the last week in October is statistically the wettest of the year. The odds, therefore, that the 28th of that month will be a rainy day are rather good.
Here in Ireland the figures tell a different story. Although 1997 provides an obvious exception, in most parts of Ireland December and January are our wettest months February usually brings a noticeable decrease in rainfall, and this relatively dry period continues through to June. But here, too, the meteorological calendar can spring a few surprises: in some areas around Dublin, August is statistically the wettest month - not because is has a preponderance of rainy days but because a few heavy thundery downpours, although brief, can nudge the rainfall total higher than in the winter months.
The rhythm of the temperature throughout the year is more predictable, but has idiosyncrasies of its own. The sun reaches the most southerly position of its seasonal oscillation around December 21st, the winter solstice, at which time the northern hemisphere receives less solar radiation than at any other time of year. One might think that this might be the coldest period, and correspondingly, the summer solstice the warmest - but not so! The earthy atmosphere system has a certain "thermal inertia", and takes time to respond to changes in the input of external energy. The time lag is about three" or four weeks, so the coldest time of year, on average, turns out, to be mid January.
But here is a strange thing. If you examine the temperature records for Dublin for the 30 year period from 1961 to 1990, and calculate the average temperature for each individual winter date, you reach the interesting conclusion that the coldest day of the year, on average, is today, St Valentine's Day.
Of course, Alexander Buchan would have said "I told you so." Buchan, you may remember, was the Scotsman who made a detailed study of "the weather in the 1860s, and came to the conclusion that certain periods of the year, were significantly colder or warmer than their position in the calendar would suggest they ought to be. The periods became widely known as "Buchan spells" he identified three "warm spells" and six cold ones, the first of the latter being the period from 7th to 14th February - in other words, this week.