BOND MARKETS rallied yesterday after €1.5 billion of Government debt was auctioned – but only by offering investors sharply higher interest rates. The sale coincided with new figures showing a rise in Irish emigration and small decline in the numbers at work in the State.
The bond auction went broadly to plan, according to the National Treasury Management Agency, the Government agency that manages the public debt. Borrowings sufficient to cover all anticipated public spending in 2010 have now been raised.
Recent turmoil in the bond market, which had pushed the effective interest rates on Irish Government debt up sharply, triggered concerns across the euro zone that Ireland could face difficulty raising the money.
The auction yesterday allayed these concerns, even though it came at the price of paying almost a full percentage point more in interest rates compared to the most recent auction of similar debt.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen pointed yesterday to the high level of demand for the bonds. “Yes, bond spreads have risen, but we also know that what’s important is that we assure people of the medium-term analysis for the economy as well,” Mr Cowen said.
Talking to reporters at the launch of the new DIT campus in Grangegorman, Dublin, yesterday, he said: “We’re committed to running the economy and running our finances in such a way as will bring more confidence into the investor market internationally. That was evident today and I think we need to continue with that effort and that approach.”
Fine Gael frontbench spokesman Leo Varadkar blamed the Government for the higher costs of borrowing.
“This means higher interest payments of around €15 million per year compared to what it would have cost to borrow the same amount of money only a few months ago. This is the price to the taxpayer of the growing lack of international confidence in the Government,” he said.
Within minutes of the bond auction, the treasury agency reiterated its intention to go ahead with auctions of short-term debt tomorrow and longer-term debt over the remainder of the year, as scheduled. As the Government’s cash position is strong, the raising of more borrowed money is not strictly necessary, but considered prudent given multiple uncertainties.
An embattled Government will face a new potential hurdle tomorrow if figures show that the economy is not making a recovery.
GDP figures will be published for the second quarter of the year tomorrow morning. These figures provide the most comprehensive measure of economic activity. Should they show that the economy is growing again, the Government will be in better position to claim its economic policies are delivering results. Positive economic growth numbers would also increase confidence in the country’s ability to repay its debts.
Separate figures published yesterday by the Central Statistics Office (CSO) show that there were 7,600 fewer people at work in the second quarter of 2010 compared to the first three month period of the year.
As this quarterly decline was the smallest since the recession began, the figures give some hope that the shake-out in the jobs market may be coming to an end.
The statistics also showed a sharp increase in the number of people who have been unemployed for more than a year. Much of this is likely to reflect the difficulty of finding work for those formerly employed in the building industry.
The Quarterly National Household Survey for the second three months of 2010 showed that the long-term unemployed continued to rise, accounting for 43 per cent of all those out of work.
Another set of CSO figures showed that emigration – of Irish and non-Irish nationals combined – rose slightly in 2010, to reach its highest level in 21 years.
In the 12 months to April of this year, the number of Irish people leaving the State rose by just over 50 per cent, to reach 27,400. Non-Irish nationals emigrating fell by one-quarter.