SOUTH AFRICA: South African president Thabo Mbeki is poised to take one of the biggest decisions of his political career this week when he decides the fate of Deputy President Jacob Zuma.
Mr Zuma's political career was thrown into turmoil last week following the conviction of his business adviser, Schabir Shaik, for soliciting bribes on his behalf.
The Durban businessman received a 15-year sentence on two counts of corruption and a lesser charge of fraud.
All of the charges relate to irregular financial dealings with Mr Zuma, who is also deputy president of the ANC, during the late 1990s.
The first corruption charge against Shaik was linked to the payment by him to Mr Zuma of R1.2 million (approximately €150,000), which it was alleged was intended to influence him for business projects.
Shaik also faced a charge of arranging for R500,000 (€60,000) to be paid to Mr Zuma every year by French arms company Thomson-CSF so he would use his influence to swing business deals.
After delivering his guilty verdict presiding, Judge Hilary Squires said that the relationship between Shaik and Mr Zuma was "generally corrupt".
The scandal could not have occurred at a worse time for President Mbeki, who is currently trying to increase the level of international aid for Africa by lobbying the major G8 powers to increase debt relief as well as financial aid.
However, US president George Bush and British prime minister Tony Blair have both made it clear that whatever extra aid and debt relief they agree upon should go only to countries which tackle corruption.
This reflects a concern in all of the G8 countries that the proposed new infusions of cash for Africa might end up in Swiss bank accounts rather than lifting the mass of ordinary Africans out of poverty.
Although Mr Zuma has not been charged with any crime, many observers feel he has been found guilty in absentia and opposition parties have all been united in calling for his resignation.
However, Mr Zuma has said his "conscience is clear" and refuses to resign.
He has long been tipped as South Africa's next president and has huge support amongst the grass roots supporters in the ANC party - especially amongst the ANC Youth League and the party's Zulu supporters - he is one of the only Zulus in the upper echelons of the organisation.
According to New Partnership for Africa's Development (NEPAD) researcher into governance Ross Herbert, President Mbeki's decision is fraught with consequences that have serious implications for himself, the ANC and the nation.
On the one hand South Africa's president risks splitting the ANC party - of which he is president - if he sacks Mr Zuma; on the other he risks jeopardising the chance of increasing international aid for Africa, if he does not.
"President Mbeki's next move is going to be watched very closely by the G8 as it will indicate where the ANC stands on corruption," Mr Herbert said.
"Mbeki has staked his political credibility and time in crafting a new respectable image of Africa through NEPAD - an image that reflects good governance and a desire to deal with corruption at the highest level."
Whatever decision President Mbeki comes to it will have the most far reaching implications of any the leader has taken to date, he said.
"If he does nothing and Zuma becomes president, he gives the signal to the international community that corruption is okay in South Africa.
"That will be Mbeki's legacy to the world; all the other fiscal changes he has made will be forgotten because he will have established the precedent that corruption is acceptable.
"However, if he sacks Zuma he risks making himself a very unpopular man within his own party as well as seriously weakening the ANC from subsequent internal division," Mr Herbert added.
"A moment comes in the life of every political party where eventually someone is caught out in relation to corruption and the party must decide whether to sweep it under the carpet or do the right thing. This is South Africa's Watergate."