An alternative government made up of Fine Gael and Labour, with the possible support of the Greens, has pulled ahead of the current Government in terms of popular support, according to the Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll. Stephen Collins, Political Editor, reports.
However, 41 per cent of voters still believe that the most likely coalition outcome is one of Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats compared to 23 per cent for a rainbow coalition.
The poll also showed that although a majority of people are optimistic about their own future and the state of the economy, there was a significant difference between supporters of the alternative governments. Those who intend to vote for the Fine Gael-Labour-led coalition are far less optimistic about the future than supporters of the current Coalition.
Asked which of two possible coalitions - Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats, or Fine Gael, Labour and possibly the Greens - they would like to see forming the next government, 36 per cent opted for the Fine Gael-Labour-led alternative, while 35 per cent supported the current Coalition.
Fifteen per cent said they would not like to see either alternative forming the government, while 14 per cent had no opinion.
This represents a big change since last November, when the question was last asked in an Irish Times poll. At that stage the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition, with 42 per cent support, was 11 points ahead of the Fine Gael-led alternative, which was on 31 per cent.
Of the three potential members of the alternative, Fine Gael supporters are the most enthusiastic, with 84 per cent of them backing a coalition with the possible support of the Greens. It appears to be an endorsement of Enda Kenny's tactic of asking Fine Gael supporters to transfer their votes to the Greens.
Labour voters are not quite as enthusiastic about the alternative coalition, but it still gets strong backing, with 69 per cent of them supporting it.
Among Green voters 61 per cent support the option. There is even a reasonable level of support for the option among Sinn Féin voters, with twice as many of them favouring a Fine Gael-Labour-Greens coalition to a Fianna Fáil-Progressive Democrats one.
Among social groups, farmers are the strongest supporters of a Fine Gael-Labour-Greens coalition, with 40 per cent of them backing the option compared with 37 per cent for the current Government.
Fianna Fáil supporters strongly supported the current Coalition, with 83 per cent of them opting for a repeat, but among PD supporters just 52 per cent wanted a return of the present Government.
When asked which of the two coalition options was likely to actually form the next government, a different picture emerged, with 41 per cent of those polled saying a Fianna Fáil-PD coalition was most likely to win power, while just 23 per cent of people predicted a Fine Gael-Labour-led government.
The overwhelming majority of Fianna Fáil voters, 79 per cent, believe their party and the PDs will form the next government, while 20 per cent of Fine Gael and Labour supporters also expect to see the Fianna Fáil-PD coalition returning to power.
Fine Gael supporters are not nearly as confident as Fianna Fáil voters about their own party's prospects. Only 56 per cent of Fine Gael voters believe their party will lead the next government, while among Labour supporters just 37 per cent expect the alternative to win.
Asked what kind of coalition they would favour if neither of the alternative coalitions had enough seats to form a government, a Fianna Fáil-Labour combination came out marginally ahead of other options, but more people expressed opposition to any Fianna Fáil-led government than opted for one of the combinations on offer.
Nearly two-thirds of the electorate are optimistic about their future and that of their families, but they are a little less hopeful about the state of the economy on the eve of the general election.
Asked how they felt about their own future and that of their families, 62 per cent said they were optimistic while 27 per cent said they were pessimistic. Seven per cent said they were neither while 4 per cent had no opinion.
Those who said they intended to vote for the Fine Gael-Labour-led alternative coalition were less optimistic than Government supporters, with 56 per cent expressing optimism as against 72 per cent of Government supporters.
On the state of the economy, 55 per cent said they were optimistic while 33 per cent said they were pessimistic, 7 per cent said neither and 5 per cent had no opinion.
There was a wide discrepancy between supporters of the alternative coalitions, with 48 per cent of those who supported a Fine Gael-led coalition saying they were optimistic about the economy and 41 per cent expressing pessimism. Among Government supporters 69 per cent were optimistic and just 20 per cent pessimistic.