TURKEY: The future of Turkey's struggling EU accession bid has been dealt another blow this week with the calling off of tomorrow's proposed emergency summit aimed at breaking the deadlock on Cyprus.
Finland, which holds the EU's rotating presidency, had hoped to persuade Turkey to open its ports to Cypriot ships before the publication next Wednesday of what is likely to be a highly critical European Commission report.
Ankara pledged in 2004 to extend its customs union (common free trade area) to new EU members by the end of this year. It still hasn't, largely because Brussels has taken no steps to end its embargo on the northern Cypriot Turkish administration, recognised only by Turkey.
Legal experts say its continuing defiance could oblige Brussels to freeze negotiations on topics linked to the dispute, such as transport. Cyprus, meanwhile, has threatened to veto Turkey's continuing bid altogether at the EU summit on December 12th
The prospect deeply worries European enlargement commissioner Olli Rehn, who has been warning for months that the Finnish diplomatic effort is the "last chance" to avert the "train crash" of Turkey's accession bid.
"We have promised accession to Turkey when it is ready," he told the French daily Liberation on Wednesday. "While we must be rigorous with Ankara . . . the Union must stick to its word."
In Turkey, where responses to the growing crisis have been surprisingly phlegmatic, many analysts see Mr Rehn's words as proof that the anti-Turkish winds blowing in Europe are changing.
Not only do neither Ankara nor Brussels want negotiations to end, they argue, the growing chaos in the Middle East make it impossible for Europe to turn its back on Turkey now. True though that may be, the immediate future of relations looks very rocky indeed.
The November 8th progress report, leaked last week, heavily criticises Turkey for continued human rights abuses, limitations to freedom of speech and religion, and the excessive political influence of the military.
A major reform package that would strengthen civilian auditing of military spending and lift restrictions on the education and property rights of non-Muslim Turks continues to fester in parliament seven months after the government announced it.
It is not just the delay that concerns Ismet Berkan, pro-European editor of daily Radikal. "The draft will not satisfy the EU, and the drafters know it," he said.
Worse still, from Europe's perspective, is Ankara's failure to do away with a notorious insult law that has been used to bring dozens of Turkish writers to trial.
Asked why, government spokesman Cemil Cicek responded with a sarcasm typical of the anti-European mood in Turkish politics. "As soon as anybody's affected by [ law] 301, there's always one western country there to hand over an award," he said, in an apparent reference to Nobel prizewinner Orhan Pamuk.
With elections next year, and opinion polls showing support for accession plummeting, it is difficult to see how Turkish-EU relations are to move beyond chronic crisis management.