Constituency profile: Dublin South East:If ever one could speak of an identikit Fine Gael constituency it has to be Dublin South East. Represented for 23 years by former party leader and taoiseach Garret FitzGerald, the constituency overlaps with Dublin 4.
Strange, then, that Dublin South East has had no Fine Gael representative in the Dáil for the last five years. With the tide running against the main Opposition party in 2002, Frances Fitzgerald was swept away. Her first preferences fell from their 1997 level of 5,501, down to 3,337. Her running-mate Colm Mac Eochaidh secured a modest 1,873 votes and Fitzgerald lost by 605 votes on the last count.
This time, Fine Gael's standard-bearer is Lucinda Creighton, whose smiling photograph has been on display in the constituency for several months.
Critics say Ms Creighton's campaign is "policy-lite" and unduly dependent on American-style promotion of her image.
Despite being Labour leader in 2002, Ruairí Quinn had to fight it out with Fine Gael for the last seat. He is running hard in this election, no doubt aware that he's fighting for his political life.
The long count of 1997 which lasted a week saw Michael McDowell of the Progressive Democrats losing out to Green candidate John Gormley by a mere 27 votes. Their fortunes improved in 2002 which saw both of them elected with ease.
At the start of the current campaign, Gormley was regarded as a sure thing, but, with the Greens slipping in the polls, his prospects are a little less bright.
McDowell's electoral fortunes ebb and flow and he has lost his seat twice in this constituency. Being Tánaiste, Minister for Justice and leader of a governing party must mean something, but the confusion over PD intentions in the controversy over the Taoiseach's finances may have done him damage.
Dublin South East without a Fianna Fáil seat is almost unimaginable, but they used to say that about Fine Gael. Fianna Fáil got 27 per cent of the vote here last time, its lowest percentage in the State. There are nail-biting moments ahead for its two candidates, Chris Andrews, son of the late MEP Niall, and barrister Jim O'Callaghan, a former under-21 rugby international.
Sinn Féin has an active candidate in Daithí Doolan who got 2,398 first preferences in 2002 and was elected to the city council in 2004. It has had to contend with ill-feeling arising from the case of a man with local connections. Joseph Rafferty (28) was shot dead in April 2005 and his killer was reported to have republican links. His sister Esther Uzell is standing as an Independent to highlight issues surrounding her brother's death.
Rory Hearne is running a busy campaign for the People Before Profit Alliance. Controversial businessman Noel O'Gara, who bought Dartmouth Square in the constituency for an estimated €10,000, is running here as well as in three other constituencies.
One way or the other, this constituency will be a close call. Creighton is forecast to take a seat from one of the other parties, but which one? Based on the 2002 figures, Labour must be seen as the most vulnerable, but neither Fianna Fáil nor the PDs can be regarded as safe.
LOCAL ISSUES:
Proposed city council waste incinerator for Poolbeg with charge and counter-charge flying between PD leader McDowell and other candidates, who claim he has taken an ambivalent stance on the issue.
VERDICT: FF -1, FG - 1, PD - 1, GP -1. Fine Gael gain from Labour.
