Pain and gain in the North, but Republic to change for sake of peace

The terms of a political settlement now agreed between the two governments and the political parties provide a mixture of pain…

The terms of a political settlement now agreed between the two governments and the political parties provide a mixture of pain and gain for the divided communities in Northern Ireland, but the prospect of long-term peace will guarantee its acceptance in the Republic.

In that regard, the main Dail parties have been committed to an outline of the settlement for years and have played active roles in its development. The Labour Party shared power with Fianna Fail when the groundwork for the talks process was laid by the Downing Street Declaration in 1993. A Fine Gael-Labour-Democratic Left government agreed the terms of the Joint Framework Document, on which the settlement is based, in 1995.

The degree of bipartisanship which operates in the Dail on Northern Ireland affairs has been exceptional in recent years. Last weekend Bertie Ahern provided separate briefings for John Bruton, Ruairi Quinn and Proinsias De Rossa on developments in the talks process and outlined the remaining difficulties.

Initial positive reactions to the settlement terms by the leaders of the opposition parties point to continuing co-operation.

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John Bruton spoke of a historic opportunity for reconciliation and co-operation among all people affected by the conflict, wherever they lived, and called for resolution, restraint and tolerance from everyone in making the agreement work.

Ruairi Quinn regarded the agreement as a landmark from which the people on the island could move forward to forge a new future for themselves, and cautioned those who would seek to wreck it.

Proinsias De Rossa welcomed the settlement as a good day for politics, for politicians and for the political process. He called for democrats to stand together against those who would attempt to wreck it and turn the clock backwards.

Changes in the Constitution, involving the claim to jurisdiction over Northern Ireland and the devolution of powers to ministers within a North-South council, represent the main elements in which the political parties and the electorate in this State will be involved.

An emotional attachment to Articles 2 and 3 has emerged within all parties in re cent months as the talks moved to completion. That reaction was particularly pro nounced within the Fianna Fail organisation and was exacerbated by a lack of public information.

Assurances provided by the Taoiseach to his parliamentary party last week defused much of the discontent, but a general "selling job" remains to be done where the public is concerned.

Some hardliners within Fianna Fail suggested that their support for a deal would hang on Sinn Fein's endorsement of the package. To their minds, Sinn Fein rather than the SDLP is now the driving force be hind the nationalist agenda. In that regard, acceptance of the agreement by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness should put the matter beyond doubt.

The mechanism chosen by the Government to deal with a positive referendum result on Articles 2 and 3 will make the most of the chances of success. Seizing a precedent from 1937, Mr Ahern and his ministers have agreed to put a "conditional" question to the electorate. The effect will be to introduce a "transitory provision" into the Constitution.

Under that provision, constitutional changes voted on within the Republic will only take effect if the three strands of the Northern Ireland agreement are fully implemented. In the event of the North-South body not coming into existence or power not being shared within the Northern Ireland assembly, the changes in the Constitution voted on by the electorate would lapse after a stated period.

The timing of events should also help. Referendums, North and South, by the end of May, an assembly election in Northern Ireland in June, and a symbolic meeting of that body in early July are designed to reduce intercommunal tensions for the marching season. By the time the Dublin and London parliaments legislate for the details of the settlement, by next February, antagonisms between Sinn Fein and the Ulster Unionists may have eased.

The public will have become acclimatised to the notion of the parties sharing power within an executive structure, and the complicated issue of arms decommissioning may have been resolved.

The timing of the Northern Ireland referendum for May 22nd means that it could coincide with a referendum on the Amsterdam Treaty, already set to take place on that date. Pressure may be put on the Government to postpone the Amsterdam issue until late May or even the autumn, to short-circuit the emergence of a unified No campaign concentrating on security issues and the loss of sovereignty.

IF the Sinn Fein ardfheis endorses the terms of the agreement by a very large majority next weekend, however, the Government may be encouraged to run both referendums together, to maximise the turnout for the Amsterdam Treaty. Another aspect of concern to the Government and opposition parties is the role the new Independent Referendum Commission will play in the forthcoming plebiscite.

Legislation arising from the McKenna court judgment obliges the commission to make the case for and against any change in the Constitution and to circulate a text to the electorate. It is totally unexplored territory, in terms of political impact.

The parties worry that an official document containing six reasons to vote for change and six for opposing it could undermine their efforts to sway their supporters. Senior Fianna Fail politicians, in particular, feel that the new system could generate public confusion rather than clarity.

However, with all the Dail parties effectively locked into the Northern Ireland deal and committed to campaigning for it, rejection of the project in a referendum in this State is inconceivable.