Today is the day when we find out if the abortion referendum will proceed as expected.
The Supreme Court, sitting in Limerick for the first time, will give its judgment on a High Court appeal that will be crucial for the construction of the proposed constitutional amendment.
In the next few hours, the Government will know whether it can proceed with the wording it has agreed in draft form, deleting the Constitution’s anti-abortion article (article 40.3.3, as the Eighth Amendment became) and substituting a provision enabling the Oireachtas to legislate for abortion, or whether it must go back to the drawing board.
Ministers display a remarkable level of confidence that the court’s judgment will not cause any problems, but if the judges uphold the findings of the High Court on the status of the unborn, the prospect of a referendum before the summer, or perhaps even this year, will evaporate.
The background to the case – the facts of which actually relate to the threatened deportation of Nigerian man whose Irish partner was pregnant – can be readhere.
The quick summary is that the High Court found that the unborn had rights beyond merely the right to life which derived from constitutional articles (including the children’s rights article inserted a few years ago), beyond just the explicitly anti-abortion article 40.3.3 (ie, the Eighth Amendment).
It stands to reason if that position is upheld, then those rights could survive the deletion of the Eighth. So a different amendment would almost certainly be found. Over to you, Mr Attorney General.
Of course, several outcomes are possible. The court could decide the case without making a finding on the rights of the unborn. Or the judges could find that the High Court overreached itself – most likely, say m’learned friends.
The expectation in Government Buildings and in the Four Courts is that the judgment will allow the abortion referendum to proceed as planned. Sarah Bardon's explainer on what will happen then is here.
Her report on the contents of the forthcoming policy paper on abortion is here.
But you may be sure that there will be a few nervous eyes cast towards Limerick mid-morning.
And in related news, the bishops are in the game.
By the way, the Supreme Court judgment will be broadcast live by RTE. Almost as good as Judge Judy.
Government mired in spin cycle claims
Mind you, for the Government, whatever the outcome, at least it will distract attention from the ongoing political sore that is the controversy about the Strategic Communications Unit.
There were angry exchanges in the Dail yesterday, the harshest words that Leo Varadkar and Micheal Martin have yet exchanged, in public anyway.
The Government is retreating from the SCU; the Opposition, and Fianna Fail in particular, want to keep this particular pot stirring.
My analysis is here.
Key takeaways: One - this is the second time Varadkar has emerged second best after political combat with Micheal Martin; two - portraying Varadkar as all spin and no substance is the real goal of Martin and co - and is a real danger for the Government. Those efforts are likely to continue today.
