Shadow Chancellor Mr Michael Portillo will take over the helm of the British Conservative Party after elections in June, ousting a defeated Mr William Hague, a survey of leading political scientists and commentators said today.
A majority of the 54 specialists surveyed by Kalends -- an online future events service owned by Reuters -- said Mr Hague would be axed by the Tories after elections expected on June 7th and replaced by Mr Portillo.If Mr Blair wins a majority of 100 seats or more, 63 per cent of respondents expect Mr Hague to lose his job, up from 57 per cent a fortnight earlier.
Only eight per cent of respondents expected Mr Hague to survive however serious his defeat. Mr Portillo, who has officially denied interest in the job, was named by 82 per cent of respondents as the most likely next Tory leader.But he (Portillo) will have to fight for it, said Dr Geoff Foote of the University of Teeside.
Shadow Foreign Affairs spokesman Mr Francis Maude, Shadow Cabinet Office Minister Mr Andrew Lansley and Mr Malcolm Rifkind, the former Defence Secretary who is now President of the Scottish Tories, emerged as his Mr Portillo's closest rivals.
For Mr Blair, the survey makes more comforting reading.
Despite the foot-and-mouth crisis, which delayed the election from the government's preferred May 3rd date, Mr Blair is unlikely to see any decline in support, with 89 per cent of those polled saying the delay would have little or no effect on Labour's popularity.All respondents expect Mr Blair to win by a majority of at least 51 seats, and 93 per cent predicted the margin would be more than 76 seats, up from 86 per cent in the previous poll.