The Labour Party is likely to have a new leader tomorrow week, and the early indications are that the vote to elect Mr Dick Spring's successor will be extremely close. After 15 years under the baton of Mr Spring, the Parliamentary Labour Party and the party's ruling body, the General Council, will meet in joint session to elect one of the two front-runners, the deputy leader, Mr Ruairi Quinn, or the chief whip, Mr Brendan Howlin.
While Ms Roisin Shortall of Dublin North West may also become a candidate, her presence in the race will be more a symbol of the radical Labour that many deputies want rather than a realistic bid for the leadership.
Though canvassing for the support of the 64 voters will begin in earnest only after Mr Spring's resignation statement today, the Quinn and Howlin camps are already conducting a detailed headcount of voters.
The intentions of the Parliamentary Labour Party are far easier to forecast than those of the General Council.
While Dail deputies and senators are generally motivated to elect a leader on the basis of his or her ability to retain or win seats - what the late John Healy described as the "face-on-the-poster factor" - members of the General Council are influenced by other considerations.
Politically an unknown quantity, the council is drawn from all over the country and is not dominated by any one power bloc. Since it has not divided on any issue in recent times, it is difficult to assess the voting direction of individual members.
They did, however, adopt a highly unexpected approach in choosing Labour's Seanad nominees earlier this year. While highprofile former deputies such as Ms Niamh Bhreathnach, Ms Joan Burton and Mr Declan Bree lobbied hard, they were surprised to find themselves rejected in favour of others who were scarcely household names.
In the short time available to the candidates, they will have to conduct a rapid, face-to-face interview with each member of the General Council. Each aspirant must present a vision and perspective on where the party should be going and how it will raise itself from the state of languor into which it seems to have subsided.
The accessibility of each candidate while both of them were cabinet ministers will also be a part of the voters' final calculation.
Sources in Leinster House last night predicted that, generally, the outcome of next week's secret ballot could track along Dublin versus rural lines.
Thirty-seven of the 64 eligible to vote are from outside Dublin. Should such a prophecy prove true, the Wexford deputy and former minister for both health and the environment should have the edge, although the former finance minister, Mr Quinn, is favourite with the bookies.
Another component in the election will be the trade union vote and the role that SIPTU representatives in particular will play. Both Mr Quinn and Mr Howlin are members of SIPTU, a fact that will probably lead the union's president, Mr Jimmy Somers, to the conclusion that his members should not be advised to support any particular candidate.
Sources pointed out that two of the SIPTU figures, Councillor Tommy Carr of Wexford and Councillor Sean Roche of Waterford, are most likely to support Brendan Howlin, given their geographical location.
However, it is much more difficult to say how Mr Martin Kennedy from Thurles, Co Tipperary, who was elected to the council by SIPTU at Labour's conference, will cast his vote.
Four members of the General Council, including its chairman, Mr John O'Brien, a branch secretary with SIPTU, are members of the country's largest union. There are also two other trade union representatives on the council, Mr Tom Brady of IMPACT and Mr Jerry Shanahan of MSF.
As the quest for votes continues to intensify, the campaign is likely to throw up the strengths and weaknesses of each candidate.
Mr Howlin, who is understood to be pulling strong support in the parliamentary party, will undoubtedly have to face further questions about his period as health minister during the hepatitis C scandal.
Sources close to him last night dismissed the prospect of collateral damage from that period.
Meanwhile, as Mr Spring prepares to leave the leader's chair, speculation suggests that he will eventually turn to a career in Europe, possibly as an EU commissioner. Ruling out the prospect of him seeking a Munster seat in the next European Parliament elections, sources said that he intends to remain in Leinster House beyond the next general election.
However, should Labour find itself back in government in 1999, when the appointment of the next Irish commissioner falls due, it is understood Mr Spring would be seen as a candidate for the post.
In spite of suggestions that he would prefer to see Mr Howlin take over the position he now vacates, Mr Spring is refusing to give any indication of his inclinations.
Sources said he would utter "no action or word" that might be interpreted as favouring one over the other. Mr Fergus Finlay, who announced on Sunday that he was resigning as Labour's political director, is also a member of the council and may vote in the leadership election.