SERBS VOTE in an unpredictable triple election tomorrow that could mean Serbian president Boris Tadic and his liberal government are ousted by a former radical nationalist and his supporters.
Opinion polls put Mr Tadic and his Democrats neck-and-neck with Tomislav Nikolic and his Serbian Progressive Party (SNS) on the eve of the elections for president, parliament and local councils.
Seeking a third and final four-year term in office, Mr Tadic insists that only he and his allies can lead Serbia out of economic crisis and keep it on track for EU membership. Mr Nikolic says the country of 7.3 million needs a change to break free of chronic poverty and corruption.
Mr Nikolic (60) split with his ultra-nationalist mentor, Vojislav Seselj, after he was indicted by the UN court at The Hague for crimes allegedly committed during the 1990s Yugoslav wars. And now he claims to be a supporter of Belgrade’s bid for EU accession.
But some Serbs, and many foreign governments, find it hard to forget his fiery rhetoric from the past when he castigated the West for supporting Kosovo’s push for independence and said he would prefer Serbia to be a province of Russia than an EU member state.
“Boris Tadic won with the message that we want to be in the European Union. Why would I continue opposing the European Union and condemn myself to staying in opposition forever? Why, when it’s good?” said Mr Nikolic, a burly former cemetery director nicknamed “The Undertaker”.
“I’ve been in politics for 22 years. Of course I’ve had to change . . . The people of Serbia have changed their opinions.”
Mr Tadic says his rival is unpredictable and his pro-western credentials too dubious to be trusted with the presidency, just months after Serbia secured official EU candidate status.
“Will this country be governed by those who have shamed us . . . or will this country be governed by those who have international credibility?” Mr Tadic said at a campaign rally.
He told Serb television that the elections would shape “the next 10 years in Serbia” and represented a choice to “continue with changes and development” or “risk the uncertainty which has been devastating for Serbian society”.
With the two main presidential candidates and parties now agreeing on the importance of EU membership, the campaign battle has shifted to the struggling Serb economy, which Mr Nikolic and the SNS say has been badly handled by the liberal elite led by Mr Tadic and the Democrats.
Surveys suggest the two party leaders will enter a run-off for the presidency on May 20th and that the SNS is likely to take the most votes tomorrow but may not be able to forge a parliamentary majority with coalition partners as easily as the Democrats.
The kingmakers could well be the Socialists, led by interior minister Ivica Dacic, who may seek the premiership in return for support.
