THE ALPS:Climate change poses serious risks to the snow reliability of Alpine ski areas and the regional economies that depend on winter tourism, according to a major report being finalised by the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The report, flagged yesterday, comes after the warmest November on record in the Alps delayed the arrival of snow by several weeks and caused widespread concern among ski resort operators.
As the OECD pointed out, tourism in the Alps is a key contributor to the regional economy, with 60 to 80 million tourists and some 160 million "skier days" in France, Austria, Switzerland and Germany each year.
Recent warming in the Alps has been roughly three times the global average, with 1994, 2000, 2002 and 2003 the warmest on record in the past 500 years.
Projections show even greater changes in the coming decades.
At present 90 per cent of the 666 medium to large Alpine ski areas normally have adequate snow cover for at least 100 days a year. The remaining 10 per cent are already operating under marginal conditions.
With less snow at low altitudes and receding glaciers higher up, the number of "snow-reliable" ski areas would drop significantly. Aincrease in temperature of one degree would reduce them to 500, two degrees to 400, and four degrees to 200.
Germany is most at risk, with a rise of one degree leading to a 60 per cent drop in snow-reliable ski areas, followed by Austria - where half the tourism income, or 4.5 per cent of the national economy, is from winter tourism.
France is about average, Italy slightly above average, and Switzerland would suffer the least - though even there a one degree increase would reduce snow by 10 per cent. There will also be "winners" and "losers" in terms of regions, says the OECD. For example, Alpes Maritimes (France), Styria (Austria) and Friuli-Venezia-Giulia (Italy) are much more vulnerable than Grisons and Valais (Switzerland), and Savoy (France).
The report notes that ski operators are already adapting to rising snow lines and shorter seasons, though most are using technology such as artificial snow machines, which consume a lot of water and energy. It warns that snow-making costs will increase considerably as the Alps warm up and will no longer be viable if temperatures rise above a certain level. And while plastic sheeting can protect glaciers, it would not prevent their eventual loss.
• The report, Climate Change in the European Alps: Adapting Winter Tourism and Natural Hazard Management, will be available in February 2007.
• Further information is available at www.oecd.org/env/cc/alps.
