Analysis: Iraq's new government faces a resurgent rebel campaign and an eventual US withdrawal, writes Tom Clonan.
Prior to January's polls in Iraq, Centcom - the coalition forces' central command - conducted a concerted military campaign against Sunni insurgents. This pre-election clampdown culminated with the US assault on Fallujah last November.
In the first few months of this year, however, the Sunnis have regrouped spectacularly with rebel attacks taking place on average once every 20 minutes on Iraqi and US targets. US commander Gen Richard Myers admitted this week that the insurgent's capacity to wage guerrilla warfare had not diminished.
Taking official Centcom casualty figures as an indicator, the Sunni insurgency would appear to have increased significantly in intensity. For the six-month period to April 2004, the US lost 376 soldiers killed in action with a further 2,474 wounded. From November 2004 to April of this year, the US military suffered 449 fatalities with over 3,457 troops wounded.
These figures represent a significant deterioration in the security situation within Iraq.
This is especially so when viewed in the context of the overall US casualty figures for Iraq. In what Centcom euphemistically refers to as the "post-combat operations" phase within Iraq - since President Bush's May 1st, 2003, announcement of "mission accomplished" - 1,429 US troops have been killed in action, with approximately 12,000 seriously wounded in the maintenance of Operation Iraqi Freedom.
A further 45 security contractors have been killed during the same period. Based on these figures, the total US troops killed and injured in Iraq during the past six months alone represents almost one-third of their overall casualty figures in the post-combat occupation phase.
These figures are further exacerbated by casualties sustained among Iraqi police and military units during the same period. While official figures are impossible to come by, during the last six months, based on estimates culled from newspaper reports of insurgent attacks, approximately 1,000 Iraqi police and soldiers have been killed in bomb and gun attacks.
Figures for the numbers of Iraqi civilians killed during this period by both insurgents and coalition troops are unavailable.
Insurgents are also increasingly attacking domestic political and economic targets to further destabilise the country and frustrate economic renewal.
The assassination of assembly members such as Lame'a Abed Khadawi on Wednesday, along with senior police and military personnel, is part of a carefully-orchestrated campaign of terror within the country.
With relatively few troops deployed to Iraq, US forces cannot achieve the type of security presence in terms of penetration and saturation sufficient to deter such attacks.
For propaganda purposes, in a tactic developed by Hizbullah against Israel in Lebanon, the insurgents are also filming their attacks on Iraqi and US targets.
Indeed, the most recent digital camera footage emerging from Iraq shows a confident and resurgent insurgency - many insurgents operating openly in coalition areas wearing full webbing and uniforms of sorts.
Chillingly, much of this footage also now contains images of insurgents shouting instructions in English to captives and prisoners prior to their cold-blooded execution - a terror tactic clearly geared towards western, particularly British and US, audiences.
Gen Myers's remarks this week to the effect that the final solution to Iraq's insurgency lies in the hands of its new leaders is a clear signal of the US intention to eventually withdraw its troops from an untenable situation.
Given the growing divisions among Kurd, Shia and Sunni elements, this timetable may also represent a countdown to civil war in Iraq.
Dr Tom Clonan is a retired Army officer. He lectures in the School of Media, DIT