Extending labour rights to Bulgaria and Romania is a litmus test for EU relations, writes Derek Scallyin Berne
SWITZERLAND VOTES tomorrow in a closely fought referendum on whether its current bilateral relations with the European Union have a future.
What began life as a vote on extending free movement of labour agreements to the newest EU member states, Bulgaria and Romania, has been linked by parliament into an all-or-nothing vote on relations with the entire bloc.
Final polls show a slim majority in favour of the two motions, although the final result has gone down to the wire in the face of growing economic uncertainty and strong populist opposition.
“We cannot have free movement without Bulgaria and Romania and people have to know the consequences if they vote No,” says justice minister Eveline Widmer-Schlumpf.
Unlike the aftermath of Ireland’s No to the Lisbon Treaty, EU officials say a Swiss No on Sunday would automatically terminate half a dozen other linked bilateral treaties agreed between Brussels and Berne in the last decade, covering everything from lowering trade barriers to managing alpine traffic.
“Of course it’s difficult to explain this to people,” said Ms Widmer-Schlumpf, “because they cannot see the economic and social benefits of our relationship with the EU and we can only speculate how it would be without it.”
Traditionally opposed to full EU membership, Swiss voters agreed in 2000 to a collection of bilateral agreements with Brussels.
A seven-year deal allowing EU and Swiss citizens mutual residency and working rights was up for renewal by referendum this year.
After a lengthy and heated debate, parliament took the controversial decision to link that vote to another pending vote, on whether to extend current bilateral arrangements with the EU to Bulgaria and Romania.
Opponents called the move an abuse of Switzerland’s famous system of direct democracy, where citizens vote in regular referenda to decide public policy.
But those in favour of linking say it was necessary to remind voters that Switzerland has no legal basis to discriminate against individual EU member states.
All main political parties bar one have campaigned for a Yes vote.
They point out that, with EU trade relations worth nearly €150 billion annually, Switzerland cannot afford to let trade agreements with the Union lapse – nor can companies do without skilled EU workers.
But convincing voters to open their country’s borders to two of Europe’s poorest countries hasn’t been easy, particularly in these uncertain economic times.
“Of course people are worried about losing their jobs, or to others, but we remind people that fears the country would be swamped by Poles after opening our doors to them in 2005 haven’t materialised,” said Alexandra Perina-Werz, parliamentary secretary of the Christian Democratic People’s
party (CVP).
“We need to convince people that we have instruments to control migration, and of course of the bigger economic picture.”
The main opponent of the referendum, the Swiss People’s Party (SVP), says that letting Romanians and Bulgarians into Switzerland will drive down wages and increase unemployment among Swiss workers.
The party, led by industrialist Christoph Blocher, is notorious across Europe for previous referenda poster campaigns.
A party poster for a vote on citizenship rights showed black hands grasping for Swiss passports, while a vote on the treatment of criminal non-nationals used the image of a black sheep being kicked off the Swiss flag. This time around, posters show black ravens tearing strips from the flag.
As with previous images, party officials deny this poster has xenophobic intentions but don’t rule out that it may have that effect on voters.
“It’s necessary to provoke these days to get attention. Without our posters our party would not be noticed,” admits Luzi Stamm, an MP for the People’s Party.
“But I don’t agree that it is overly nationalistic. I am afraid of the free movement of people. And if I thought we were ruining the reputation of Switzerland abroad, I would not be doing what I’m doing.”
The effectiveness of the party’s poster campaigns is disputed: they have not yet swung a referendum in the SVP’s favour, but political analysts say it boosts party support at the following elections.
And, these days, the SVP badly needs support: deep divisions over tomorrow’s vote has worsened an ongoing party row that last year saw a third of its MPs break away, with more likely to follow.
Blocher loyalists suggest that, if tomorrow’s referendum fails, Berne can negotiate a new, improved deal with Brussels.
Leading EU officials have made plain that snubbing its two newest member states is not the best basis for the start of a new relationship.
If the referendum passes, officials on both sides are expected to upgrade current ad-hoc relations to a more formalised framework that will grow with new legislation and regulations.
The proposed new framework could cover everything from agricultural free trade to the conditions under which Swiss troops would automatically participate in EU-led peacekeeping missions.