Garda sources indicated earlier this year there were intelligence reports of the Provisional IRA moving weapons in the Republic and seeking new hiding places. While there was information about the weapons being moved, there was little indication of the IRA's aims. It had stated, in strong terms, several times since decommissioning became an issue in 1995, that it would not hand over weapons. Rejecting pleas from public representatives up to and including President Clinton, it stated on June 5th, 1996: "Let us nail completely the position on decommissioning. The IRA will not be decommissioning its weapons through either the front of back doors." At Easter this year it again stated: "Let us make it clear that there will be no decommissioning by the IRA." But something was happening. The guns and weapons were being moved to new hiding places, and there was absolutely no indication the IRA was about to go back on the warpath.
And, if reports from last week's talks at Stormont are accurate, then the republican leadership is, for the first time, prepared to begin a decommissioning process, possibly within the next few weeks, if its political leaders are granted executive positions in the Stormont Assembly.
If this is true, it is in republican terms a quantum leap. It essentially means that the notion of "armed struggle" has been completely ruled out and that militant republicanism is shifting inexorably towards constitutional politics.
The shift began with the republicans' endorsement of the Belfast Agreement in April last year. One important republican principle, that any referendum on the future government of the island should take place only on an all-Ireland basis, was dropped; while the other, the commitment that decommissioning should take place (within a stated time-frame of Sinn Fein entering government and to be completed by May 2000), effectively ended the central philosophy of Provisional republicanism on the "right" to armed insurrection.
If the remaining political gap is bridged, the decommissioning process becomes the work of Gen John de Chastelain's Independent International Commission. He and his three assistants, along with two arms experts from the United States and Canadian military, have a clearly set-out system of ground rules whereby the paramilitary organisations can arrange to have weapons handed in, or can destroy their own weapons and call the commission to verify this destruction.
Once the process begins - when the paramilitary groups give an "unambiguous" signal that they intended decommissioning before the final date of May 22nd, 2000 - the laws passed by both governments granting amnesty to people moving weapons for the purpose of decommissioning come into effect.
The paramilitaries will be given safe passage to transport weapons either for the purpose of surrender to the commission or for destruction by their own members.
Last year, the commission made contact with the Garda Siochana and Defence Forces about the arrangements for allowing the paramilitaries to collect their weapons and the possible ways in which they would be delivered for destruction or verification in the event of the IRA choosing to destroy their own guns - thought by many to be the more likely course of events - without being arrested.
If there is a need for machinery for destroying guns or mortars, arrangements have already been made with commercial breakers with the equipment to grind firearms. The Army's ordnance team has made preparations for the disposal of explosives which, in the event of their surrender, will be taken to the Curragh and detonated.
In the case of the IRA, the decision to decommission will be taken by its seven-member army council. Under its "green book" set of rules, the council has the power to ". . . make regulations regarding organisation, training, discipline, equipment and operations . . .".
The IRA has not nominated any official contact with Gen de Chastelain's commission, but he has had regular talks with Mr Martin McGuinness, who is seen as being very close to the leadership of the entire republican movement and has represented the IRA leadership in talks with both governments since the earlier 1970s.
The Ulster Volunteer Force (UVF) and its affiliate group, the Red Hand Commando (RHC), have appointed Mr Billy Hutchinson, of the Progressive Unionist Party, as its contact with the Independent Commission. The brigade staff of the UVF will decide when, or if, it will hand over weapons.
The large and volatile loyalist organisation, the Ulster Defence Association (UDA), has not appointed a contact but Gen de Chastelain's negotiations with this group have been through Mr Gary McMichael, leader of the UDA's political wing, the Ulster Democratic Party.
The Loyalist Volunteer Force (LVF), the only group which has decommissioned weapons (on December 18th last) had a contact in the form of Pastor Kenny McClinton, but he resigned earlier this year.
There is considerable uncertainty over the intentions of the LVF and the UDA as members of both organisations have been involved in multiple grenade and petrol-bomb attacks and were both involved in the assassination of the solicitor, Ms Rosemary Nelson.
The splinter republican group, the Irish National Liberation Army (INLA), which called a ceasefire early last year, has had virtually no contact with the commission since.
There has been no contact with the dissident groups like the "Real IRA", which carried out the Omagh bombing, and the Continuity IRA, both of which are opposed to the Belfast Agreement. The loyalist groups, the Red Hand Defenders and Orange Volunteers, are believed to be names of convenience used by UDA and LVF figures engaged in sectarian violence in the North.