The Labour Party vote is distinctly soft and its election campaign a tad remote in the key marginal battleground of Birmingham Edgbaston, writes Kathy Sheridan
The electorate is sullen and suspicious. The issues are distorted and depressing. Even the posters, usually designed to inject some cosmetic excitement into elections, are downright dispiriting.
Here in Birmingham Edgbaston, the bylaws decree that posters should be no bigger than an A4 or A5-sized sheet so as not to distract drivers. The effect is of the occasional teeny blob of dull colour looming up on lampposts.
Does it matter? In a random sample of young people yesterday in the 70,000-strong constituency, none could name their own MP (Labour's Gisela Stuart), never mind state their voting intentions. The absence of a Royston Brady-style postering blitz has to be a factor.
Nonetheless, this is the seat that is perceived as a microcosm of England, in every sense. Its four wards run the British socio-economic gamut, from Bartley Green, a vast council estate with one of the highest rates of single mothers in the country, all the way up to the mansions and pleasant green cricket grounds of Edgbaston.
It has also become a key Labour versus Conservative battleground. The mantra is that whoever wins the midlands will win Britain, and Edgbaston itself assumed iconic status on May 1st, 1997, when it became the first Labour gain to be televised on that extraordinary night.
In 2001, Stuart managed to increase her vote by about 1 per cent against the run of play, but did it in the context of a dramatically reduced turnout - down from a consistent 70 per cent up to 1997, to 56 per cent four years later.
This is where her smart, moderate and determined Conservative rival this time out, Deirdre Alden, draws her comfort.
It was the Conservative voters who stayed away last time, she says, "but this time, it's Labour who will stay at home".
All she needs is a 6 per cent swing - not an impossible dream in a constituency that in 1997 elected eight Labour councillors and four Conservatives but is now down to one Labour to 11 Conservatives.
Notably, the Tories have three out of three council seats in Bartley Green, the most working-class ward. As well as that, Alden has a higher profile than most, being a councillor married to John, another long-standing councillor and recent, high-profile lord mayor of the city. On top of that, the signs are that the Labour vote is distinctly soft and its campaign a tad remote.
On Saturday, after a brief appearance at a Labour stand in the local market, Gisela Stuart told The Irish Times that she was "helping someone elsewhere" and would not be available publicly again until this [ Monday] afternoon. Two days out of a marginal constituency 10 days before an election.
Tory activists reacted to this piece of news with a mixture of genuine bafflement and unwonted optimism. "She knows she's lost! She's thrown in the towel!" yelped an excitable one. "She's probably gone back to Worcester, where she lives," said a more reflective Alden, who likes to remind people that she [ Alden] actually lives in her constituency. "But I really can't understand it."
While the German-born Stuart's ability and commitment are unquestioned, her street cred has taken a pounding in recent times. In a university city, her collusion with Labour's U-turn on top-up fees did not go unnoticed, nor did her call for George Bush to be re-elected - "You know where you stand with George" - last November.
In that sense, she typifies the swathe of Labour MPs currently inducing ulcers in many anti-war but die-hard Labour voters.
"We know people like Stuart stretch the limits of the 'Keep Tories out at all costs' strategy, but still: Vote Labour. And then go and have a shower," decrees So Now Who Do We Vote For?, a website described as "a resource for dismayed Labour supporters".
Meanwhile, according to Alden, the top doorstep issue is postal vote rigging. This has potential for endless and very timely fun at Labour's expense, since six Labour city councillors were expelled for blatant postal vote fraud. The hot issue of trust has been raised by several notches.
On the other hand, even the Tories have to admit that the fall-out from the Rover-MG collapse is having a negligible effect. "People are bruised of course," says the Tory MEP, Malcolm Harbour, who is helping out Alden today, "but there are many blue-collar vacancies in the area."
It may be Saturday but Alden is sticking to her routine of three rounds of canvassing a day, flashing around in her Rover car with its "Keep Gibraltar British" sticker on the back, and John not far behind, in his gleaming, Tory-blue Jaguar.
Early on, there's a door slammed in John's face with a "No thank you" from a voter who, says John, reading from his clipboard, had "previously been a socialist". They can tell because they have meticulous records of canvasses from precious elections. And a Labour voter is never just Labour, but "socialist".
The day is too cold and miserable to invite much engagement on the doorsteps and many people are out. An articulate woman emerging from a chaotic house is a "definite yes though Tony's stolen all your policies, which is a pain in the arse"
A slightly deranged elderly owner unbuttons her shirt to reveal a livid operation scar and seems to be blaming Tony Blair for it. No one mentions issues. We are in classic dog-whistle territory. No need to ask "Are you thinking what we're thinking?"
Asked about the re-emergence of the Tories as the Nasty Party of legend, Alden replies mildly that no one has ever called it that to her face. She claims to know nothing about the proposed overseas processing camp for immigrants, lately proposed by her party. "I've been too busy to watch the news"
It cuts both ways. Later on, this reporter meets a soft-spoken woman with a disabled daughter, who claims to have "heard from Labour" that the Tories plan to abolish the NHS if they get in. She will of course be voting Labour.
Further on, two women say they are switching from Labour to the Liberal Democrats because of the MRSA problem in hospitals. One is a nurse. A man cleaning a McDonald's window is also switching - but over immigration.
Come evening, John Alden does a less than scientific comparison between the result of today's canvass and the last one. He concludes that there is a swing to the Conservatives of 10 per cent. Even his wife looks sceptical.