David Trimble will today stake his leadership of Ulster Unionism and the survival of the Belfast Agreement on his own "closure mechanism" to ensure the collapse of the power-sharing executive should IRA decommissioning not swiftly follow devolution.
While precise details of Mr Trimble's planned approach to this morning's historic meeting of the Ulster Unionist Council were under wraps last night, it is certain to provide the dramatic high-point of a 15-minute speech on which his leadership, and the survival of the agreement, now hang.
The position of Mr Trimble's deputy, Mr John Taylor, is seen as crucial to the outcome of a secret ballot on whether the party accepts the conclusions of Senator George Mitchell's review and allows its Assembly members to form an executive administration which would include Sinn Fein ministers.
Early today, sources close to Mr Taylor indicated that he would throw his support behind Mr Trimble at the crucial council meeting. Prior to this development, Mr Trimble appeared to have secured the support of Mr Taylor's constituency party after attending a meeting last night in their Newtownards headquarters, from which Mr Taylor was absent.
A source at the meeting said Mr Trimble was given a standing ovation by all but two of those present. The mood of the meeting was said to be supportive of his decision to enter government with Sinn Fein in the expectation of IRA decommissioning.
The Ulster Unionist Council meeting begins at 10 a.m. in Belfast's Waterfront Hall and the result is expected by 1.30 p.m.
Last night, about a quarter of the Orange Order's 120 delegates to the 858-member council met in Belfast to consider their position.
A statement issued after the meeting by Mr Denis Watson, Co Armagh Grand Master of the Orange Order, read: "The Grand Lodge is still committed to the principle of `no guns, no government', which is in line with the policy of the Ulster Unionist Council, and the Orange Order delegates were reminded to use their votes accordingly at the meeting."
As the Orange delegates met, the Rev Ian Paisley's Democratic Unionists again raised the stakes by tabling a fresh motion seeking Sinn Fein's exclusion from office. A senior unionist source said there was no doubt that at least one of Mr Trimble's dissident Assembly members would sign the DUP motion.
This would provide the necessary 30 signatures to have the motion debated in the Assembly on Monday before the triggering of the d'Hondt mechanism for the nomination of ministers.
The fury of anti-agreement unionists is likely to be further provoked by the appearance on the Assembly order paper of a second motion, to be moved by the leader of the Alliance Party, Mr Sean Neeson, inviting Mr Seamus Mallon to withdraw his resignation as Deputy First Minister-designate.
This would remove the need for a fresh election of both Mr Trimble and Mr Mallon, requiring an absolute majority of designated "unionist" and "nation alist" votes at Stormont.
In the face of persistent speculation that January 31st next is his effective deadline, Mr Trimble insists that he would consider it "wholly counter-productive" to set a date "publicly" on which he and his ministers would quit the executive should the IRA fail to begin decommissioning.
Despite this, there were strong indications last night that the option of post-dated letters of resignation was one of a number still under consideration by Mr Trimble and his closest advisers.
There is strong speculation that the scenario Mr Trimble will outline this morning will involve a decision to reconvene the UUC by early February.
Mr Trimble has not yet disclosed the terms of the motion he will submit to the council delegates, seeking their approval for the deal concluded with Sinn Fein in the Mitchell review. But in his interview in yesterday's Irish Times he said: "This cannot work without the participation of the Ulster Unionist Party. So, at the end of the day, whatever anyone else might do or say or think, it is our decision . . . We have within ourselves the capacity to put a term to things."
A number of Mr Trimble's closest allies have been attempting to persuade him against any specific commitments to time tabling. They believe that the Mitchell process offers them the high moral ground and that popular opinion will be reflected in a comfortable victory for Mr Trimble at today's meeting.
Even if the vote is close, they argue that a successful formation of the executive will oblige the IRA to begin decommissioning.