UGNANDA: Uganda goes to the polls today in a referendum that could overturn a two-decade ban on multiparty elections.
International observers and foreign donors - responsible for about half the government's income - are becoming increasingly nervous about President Yoweri Museveni's commitment to democracy and view today's vote as a crucial indicator of progress.
"Donors have made clear to the Ugandan government what they want to happen in the coming six months," said a diplomatic source in Kampala. "Uganda's friends will be reassured by a Yes vote in the referendum but will view a No vote as something of a crisis."
Mr Museveni seized power in a 1986 coup and promptly banned multiparty politics, claiming that political divisions had fomented bloody tribal rivalries that made possible the murderous regimes of Idi Amin and Milton Obote.
Back then his arrival was greeted with optimism that a new Uganda could be born. Over time he was bracketed with other young African leaders, such as Meles Zanawi in Ethiopia and Paul Kagame in Uganda, who offered a new model for a continent racked with corruption.
These were the sort of leaders with whom the west could do business, but like Meles - whose security forces gunned down 40 protesters last month in the wake of disputed elections - Mr Museveni has fallen from favour as he appeared increasingly reluctant to ease his grip on power.
Two weeks ago Ugandan MPs voted to change the country's constitution to allow Mr Museveni to stand for a third presidential term in elections due next year.
Donors have reacted by withholding aid or making future contributions dependent on reforms.
Earlier this month, US ambassador to Uganda Jimmy Kolker said the country's democracy would remain incomplete until its people could express their views without fear.
"Violence, intimidation and threats remain a regular feature of Uganda's politics," he said.
Britain, the country's former colonial ruler, has decided to suspend aid worth €7.4 million and Norway is to withhold €3.3 million because of concerns that reforms were being mishandled.
The Irish Government has also held back €3 million while the European Union has said €92 million in new budgetary support will be pegged to good governance.
However, a Department of Foreign Affairs spokesman said: "We are encouraged by the government of Uganda's commitment to a Yes vote in the referendum on multi-party elections. We are hopeful of a positive outcome."
Yet many in the country question the expense of the referendum and wonder whether a largely illiterate electorate will get to grips with the question.
Some opposition leaders argue that it is senseless to put the issue to a vote. Paul Ssemogerere, leader of the Democratic Party, for one, is refusing to endorse the referendum. "This is a right," he told a rally last week in Kampala.
"It is like a right to eat, a right to life, all of which cannot be a subject of a vote. I for one will not vote in the referendum because that is a cruel joke."