Technology foresight sounds like an abstract notion with little direct relevance to our daily lives. But it is a process of long-term thinking and planning that has taken hold and been shown to be highly successful in some of the world's most developed economies. For the first time, Ireland has embarked on a foresight exercise.
The outcome from embracing the process will be known when a final report is presented to the Minister of State for Science, Technology and Commerce, Mr Noel Treacy, in December. The initiative is under the control of the Irish Council for Science, Technology and Innovation, which advises the Government on science issues. It is managed by a working group within ICSTI. This is led by Mr Brian Sweeney, chairman of Siemens in Ireland, who last week outlined its progress.
Eight panels of experts have been established and are looking at a range of sectors, including chemicals and pharmaceuticals; computer hardware, software and telecommunications technology; natural resources; health and life sciences; construction and infrastructure; materials and manufacturing processes; transport and logistics; and energy. The public will soon have an opportunity to voice their views, too.
This initiative presents an opportunity for people with views on national science and technology issues to pool their insights - not to mention diverse expertise - to test underlying assumptions and to build linkages. They represent the relevant stakeholders: government, industry and the higher education sector. Germany, Britain, Japan, New Zealand, and Denmark place great faith in the process.
Such foresight activity already exists here within the Government agency, Forfas, which advises and co-ordinates efforts in industrial development, science and technology. The ICSTI initiative benefits, however, from having a membership drawn from outside of State agencies which has the freedom to apply a broad-based approach as it seeks to ask the right questions on Ireland's future and draw conclusions on which path it should follow if it is to enhance its national technological capabilities to meet future needs. The foresight expertise within Forfas supplies an invaluable support network.
Breath-taking technological advances have been a major feature of 20th-century history. "These advances will continue at an even greater rate in the future. Technology Foresight represents a major opportunity for Ireland to be better informed and therefore better prepared for the future," is how Mr Sweeney puts the Foresight Task Force in context. To change into this mould, he added, is not easy when most businesses extrapolate only three years into the future at a push.
Mr Terry Landers of Forfas explained: "It recognises that, given the initiative has a time horizon of 2015, there are many possible futures and that choices made today can significantly shape the future. It informs the decision-making process of the strategic choices available and on the prioritisation of expenditure."
And it takes in issues such as human factors, demographic influences, the demands of sustainable development, best international practice, and so on.
Since March, a project plan has been put in place. Seven of the panels have issued its "first view" and come up with key strategic questions to be answered. They may seem like simple questions, Mr Sweeney said, but they have been finalised after a lot of soul-searching. Providing the answers to simple questions may not be so easy. Also, one simple question can prompt a whole series of related questions.
The panels will now attempt to provide the answers, establish a coherent picture of the future, determine the optimal positions for various sectors, and plot the pathways for realising the future positions.
This kind of planning helps ensure Ireland takes the right steps into the new century, and that we do not make the kind of short-sighted conclusion the US Patent Office made in 1889 when it indicated that everything that can be invented has been invented.
Strategic questions for Ireland in the new century:
What research and development initiatives will be necessary to embed multinational organisations and encourage the growth of new ventures in the pharmaceutical and chemical sector?
How will Ireland be able to participate in the information, communications and telecommunications activities which will be valued in 2015?
In what way will customisation and information technology affect the structure of manufacturing processes and systems in Ireland in 2015?
What kind of infrastructure is needed to support a thriving health and sciences industry in Ireland? What areas within biotechnology are needed to sustain and develop successful R&D programmes and business enterprises?
How will the agri-food industry improve its competitiveness having regard to food safety requirements, consumer demands and the need to operate within environmental requirements? To what extent will European markets accept foods produced through the use of novel technologies?
How best can the Irish construction industry meet the requirements of the market together with the economic, social, environmental and regulatory conditions of the world of 2015?
How do we ensure that our transport and logistic system is appropriate in 2015?