UUP's plight in stark contrast to SDLP success

If, Mr Trimble heard the initial findings of the UMS/Irish Times/RTE Prime Time poll, he may well have had a sleepless night

If, Mr Trimble heard the initial findings of the UMS/Irish Times/RTE Prime Time poll, he may well have had a sleepless night. He certainly faces a long and stressful weekend - confident still that he will emerge as First Minister-Designate in the new Northern Ireland government, but unable to know or project the margin of his advantage in the Assembly.

Late last night the Ulster Unionist Leader's aides were revising their planned script, faced with the early exit poll indications that they were running neck-and-neck with the Democratic Unionist Party.

The first batch of figures putting the UUP and DUP on 20 per cent and 19 per cent were completed by 6 p.m. and made no allowance for the post-teatime "surge" Glengall Street claimed would benefit its candidates.

The 8 p.m. totals, based on a sample of 1.600 people, showed the margin slightly opening - 20 per cent to the UUP, with the DUP on 18 per cent. UUP strategists insisted that margin would be greater still at close of play today when the actual first preference votes in the North's 18 constituencies have been counted.

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However none of those contacted last night was willing to reject one of the most striking findings of the poll - namely that the SDLP was set to emerge as the largest single party in this election. And by implication, Ulster Unionist strategist were confirming their suspicions that they had indeed fared loess well than expected.

Earlier this week one source close to Mr Trimble told the Irish Times he would be very happy if the party maintained their 26.7 per cent share of the vote in last years local government contest. By last night party sources were prepared to welcome a repeat of their disappointing 24.2 per cent showing in the elections for the Forum in May the previous year.

One senior source said he expected the final figure to show around 274 per cent support for the UUP, with the DUP at 18 per cent. But he admitted disappointment, sharply lowered expectations, and acknowledged difficult times ahead for Mr Trimble and the Agreement.

the Ulster Unionist rationale will be that it was always going to be so; that their performance in the Forum election, disappointing as it was, was achieved by a united party, with benefit of backing form the Orange Order. The irony of the electoral test set Mr Trimble by the Agreement was that, if he was to move into the comfort zone commanding close to 60 per cent of the unionist strength in the Assembly, he had to do better in altogether less propitious circumstances.

Certainly, apart from his determined bid to move to the high moral ground in the final days of the campaign, Mr Trimble has, for the most part, found his campaign mired in the continuing controversies and divisions caused by the vexed issues of decommissioning, prisoner releases, and Sinn Fein participation in the Executive.

The underlying state of unionist opinion on these is revealed in the poll findings that just 12 per cent of the UUP voters think Sinn Fein should be permitted to join the Executive without IRA decommissioning, while 86 per cent say it should only happen if the IRA decommission their weapons.

The overall message of the poll is that unionism remains more-or-less split down the middle over the Agreement, as it was in the last month's referendum.

The exit poll suggests the pro-Agreement unionists (Ulster unionists, PUP and UDP) have a combines total of 24 per cent - with the anti-Agreement bloc (DUP, UKUP and United Ulster Unionist dissidents) with the same. Even if those figures were replicated in terms of seats, the anti-Agreement bloc would not have the numbers to block Mr Trimble under the Assembly Sufficient consensus rules.

However, the declared No candidates inside Mr Trimble's party would exert a powerful influence, which would almost certainly be reflected in pressure on Mr Trimble to seek further concessions form the British government - placing him on a collision course with both governments and the other parties to the Agreement.

In reduces circumstances Mr Trimble has little scope for generosity. So while holed-up at hid own count in Upper Bann , the UUP leader will be praying that his five or six potential dissidents are not among the successful UUP candidates. He will also be counting on tow other factors to widen the margin of advantage in the Assembly.

First, the clear expectation is that UUP will gain significantly over the DUP in terms of second and later preference transfers from other parties, particularly Alliance. Second is the fact that, while third, fourth and subsequent placed parties can expect strict justice from a PR election, there is a bonus for the tow main parties, which may be reflected in two or three extra seats.

While the SDLP seems to claim a distinct and significant advantage over Sinn Fein, Mr Trimble may ruefully reflect that is the only bonus thus far to accrue to the UUP.