Virus outbreak will not lame the tiger - economist

The Celtic Tiger is in no danger of catching foot-and-mouth, according to a leading economist.

The Celtic Tiger is in no danger of catching foot-and-mouth, according to a leading economist.

Mr Jim O'Leary, chief economist at Davy stockbrokers described the notion of the Irish economy being brought to its knees by foot-and-mouth disease as "fanciful" and reflects a mentality 30 years out of date.

"Looking at the Irish economy as a whole there is no meaningful sense in which Ireland is an agricultural economy," he said.

He asserted farm incomes now account for only 4 per cent of total household incomes so a fall of 20 per cent in farm income - based on a worst case scenario - would have little effect on national income.

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Irish exports of meat and live animals to the EU were valued at over £1 billion in 2000 but there is considerable scope for trade expansion with non-EU countries which accounted for only £233 million last year.

"While the diversion of exports away from the EU will result in a loss of Ireland's price premium the payment of EU subsidies will reduce the impact of such losses on farm incomes and processors' margins," Mr O'Leary said.

He said a number of food products such as dairy produce and poultry could be exempt from any EU ban. Cheese products are made in acid processes which foot-and-mouth cannot survive.

The heat treatment of milk also reduces the occurrence of foot and mouth.

He said while the current scare would have a detrimental effect on the farming community if foot-and-mouth takes hold the current robust health of the Irish economy would absorb any job losses in the sector.