As these words are being read the voters in Tipperary South are having the only last word that counts. Drapier is wary of opinion polls so close to voting day, especially if most of the field work was done well up to a week before the publication of the poll and he knows too that the poll itself may well become a factor in the election - inducing complacency or urgency, or becoming a weapon in the battle.
The TG4 poll will have come as no surprise to those who have been on the ground in South Tipp since the campaign started. From the outset Tom Hayes was the strongest candidate, the only survivor of last year's contest, an established campaigner fighting to hold his own party's seat and with the tag of having been in hard luck last time out.
Denis Landy is more involved in long-term work - rebuilding his party base with an eye to the general election, while from the start Phil Prendergast was the slow-burning fuse, and undoubtedly she was the person who benefited most from the inordinately long campaign. Whoever was the bright spark in Fianna Fail who thought that one up has seen it backfire. A long campaign presumably means a slow start and a crescendo at the finish. The Fianna Fail finish has been to say the least, limp.
Indeed, for Fianna Fail the TG4 poll has caused bewilderment and consternation. Michael Maguire is a decent candidate but his campaign never took off. There was little evidence of Fianna Fail hunger and the expected push at the end never came.
Noel Davern cannot be blamed this time. He did as much for his man as any incumbent TD could, and yet it seems to little effect.
Drapier, however, is concerned that, as he writes, the votes have not yet been cast. Drapier like everybody else was wrong on Nice, though his earlier instincts had him telling his readers that he saw a campaign in trouble. He is making no prediction today, but his instincts and three weeks on the ground in South Tipp tell him this is now a two-horse race between Tom Hayes and Phil Prendergast and, if pressed, he expects the TG4 poll to be a reasonably accurate indicator of the outcome.
The TG4 poll came as a bombshell to many in the Government and put the tin hat on what has been a miserable few weeks for them. Bertie Ahern was lucky to be out of the House for most of the week, thus avoiding the verbal mauling he has of late been getting on the Order of Business from Michael Noonan and Ruairi Quinn. Indeed, even Mary Har- ney is rationing her appearances for the Order of Business - in the national interest, of course - but it is all indicative of a regime that is fast running out of self-confidence.
Indeed, this Dail session is ending in a way similar to that of last year. Then it was the O'Flaherty case and the poor performance in South Tipperary. Today, it is the post-Nice fallout, the health services, and South Tipperary once again proving to be the catalyst.
It's worse this year because, in many ways, it has all been so unexpected. One senior Fianna Fail friend said to Drapier eight weeks ago that then was the time to go to the country. This was pre-Nice, the Tipp writ had not been moved, footand-mouth had been averted and Fine Gael was in disarray. The opinion polls had Bertie Ahern walking on water and his party not far behind. According to Drapier's friend things could not get any better, and could only go downhill from then on. And, he concluded, once things start going wrong it is very hard to reverse the process.
The rest, as they say, is history. Things have been going downhill, with the embarrassing capitulation to the Gang of Four on the dual mandate, the increasing levels of local anger over road plans and the incapacity of the health services to absorb and respond to reform.
As Drapier has noted it's all very reminiscent of this time last year. Then, a battered Government could not wait until the summer recess and for the recuperative balm of stage-managed PR events away from the noisy and abrasive confrontation of party politics.
The Government used last summer well to regroup and relaunch while the Opposition had no real platform from which to attack. No doubt the Government managers are hoping to do something similar this year.
It is a fact of life that governments much prefer life when the Dail is not in session. Daily accountability takes its toll on all governments but especially on those long in office and, for the life of him, Drapier cannot understand why opposition parties agree to such long recesses when their own best interests would be served keeping a government tied down and on the parliamentary ropes.
But that's the way it is, and even if South Tipperary means that the general election will not come until the last possible moment the general election campaign has now well and truly started. The clear message to all parties is that with no real ideological differences between them and with consensus on most of the major issues what really makes the difference is the quality of the candidates on offer.
More and more people are thinking local and voting local. Edmund Burke in days of yore may have told his electors at Bristol that the general good came before any local interest, but if you preached that message today you would be out of parliament in double quick time.
The electorate will be cruel next time out to politicians who are perceived to have passed their sell-by date and to those who have not stoutly advocated and defended local interests. The North and Europe are hugely important but make little impact on everyday life.
For many, these are big problems about which they can do nothing. But, on the other hand roads, traffic, health, as they affect local communities - these are things which can be changed and it is on these issues that candidates are being judged.
The performance of Phil Prendergast in South Tipp, whether elected or not, is a clear warning that protest candidates are going to figure large in the coming election. Marian Harkin in Sligo-Leitrim is all but there. There are others as yet unknown nationally who will emerge, there are issues already festering which will erupt as soon as the campaign begins. Whoever heard of Tom Gildea before the last election? Indeed - and expect much more of the same.
There was genuine sadness this week when we learned of the death of Michael Moyni- han. Michael was a giant of a man but in everything he did he exuded generosity, decency and great natural courtesy. His Fine Gael background did him no harm in carving out and holding a Labour seat in South Kerry, the seat now held by his daughter, Breda. Michael lived a long and full life and leaves behind good memories for those of us lucky enough to have known him.