`White smoke' still eludes as the Mitchell review warms up

There is no sign yet of a republican commitment to a decommissioning event which might break the political deadlock and enable…

There is no sign yet of a republican commitment to a decommissioning event which might break the political deadlock and enable the early creation of Northern Ireland's power-sharing executive.

This was made clear by a number of parties last night, as Mr David Trimble, the Ulster Unionist leader, played down expectations - seemingly encouraged by some of his colleagues - that the Mitchell review might be on the verge of a dramatic breakthrough.

However, despite Mr Trimble's efforts, and the insistence by Mr Ken Maginnis MP that no deal has been done, there was continuing evidence of a "serious engagement" between Sinn Fein and the UUP, and a general belief that the republican movement's "bottom line" has not yet been defined.

Senator George Mitchell returns to Belfast today for another round of talks in what is widely regarded as the final phase of his review of the implementation of the Belfast Agreement. Despite that widespread assumption, however, well-informed sources say there is no certainty that the review will necessarily end this week.

READ MORE

Speaking ahead of the senator's return, Mr Trimble yesterday suggested the pro-agreement parties were not as close to agreement on the creation of the executive as he would like. "I wish we were [closer], and we could be," he said. "It's been a long time that we've all been waiting for people to make up their minds. This process is about bringing into existence new opportunities but that requires some changes, and, of course, it will produce further changes."

The biggest change of all, said Mr Trimble, "is to move from a situation dominated by violence to a situation where violence is obsolete."

Clearly anxious to calm unionist suspicions heightened by the secrecy surrounding the continuing negotiations ahead of another crucial week - which will include a meeting of the Ulster Unionist executive committee on Friday - Mr Maginnis told Radio Ulster: "The answer is No. A deal hasn't been done."

However, Mr Maginnis also reflected the sense of serious purpose surrounding the talks, adding: "Beyond that I am not going to be persuaded into infringing what are clearly sensitive talks at this particular time. "There are matters that are being talked about behind closed doors. They are not dishonourable issues. In fact they are the exact opposite. It's a question of trying to build trust between the two main protagonists in this particular set of negotiations."

But Mr Maginnis stressed decommissioning remained essential.

It is understood the formal UUP position is rooted in the approach outlined by Mr Maginnis in a speech at Trinity College Dublin last week. This would require a republican declaration that the conflict was over; agreement by all paramilitaries to quantify the weapons in their possession; a commitment to a process of total disarmament by May 2000; and a starting date for the commencement of a decommissioning process.

However, few participants in the talks believe there is the remotest prospect of a commitment from Sinn Fein on behalf of the whole republican movement in such terms.

That assessment is encouraging speculation that a possible compromise could involve a combination of statements of intent from Sinn Fein and specific commitments by the IRA; for example, to appoint an interlocutor to liaise with the International Decommissioning Commission, which might itself become "proactively" engaged with paramilitaries.

It is believed a number of scenarios have already been canvassed which might go some way towards giving what Mr Peter Mandelson last week called "clarity and certainty of intention".

Beyond indications of intent, however, it seems certain that Mr Trimble would require speedy delivery of "product" to enable him to survive a challenge to his leadership over the prior creation of the executive That in turn prompts the question of whether the perceived republican offer - which prompted Mr Tony Blair to pronounce a "seismic shift" in republican thinking last July - is back on the table.

After a further meeting with the UUP yesterday, Mr Gerry Kelly of Sinn Fein said there was still only a "small hope" that agreement could be reached. "I know I am repeating myself, but there is a small hope, and we have the commitment and the will to make that into a larger hope."