Tallinn, Prague and Warsaw are pleasant destinations in late summer, but Angela Merkel’s recent visit may have left her with a nasty chill.
The German chancellor might have hoped her whistle-stop tour of central Europe would boost relations with regional leaders ahead of an autumn of daunting challenges, but all it actually strengthened were fears for an increasingly fractious and divided bloc.
On key issues from the refugee crisis to Brexit to relations with Russia and Turkey, differences between member states are growing and populists across the continent are challenging Germany's leading EU role.
A year on from the peak of the refugee emergency, when thousands of asylum seekers reached Germany daily via the "Balkan route", Merkel was confronted last Friday with the prospect of renewed chaos.
Turkish prime minister Binali Yildirim essentially warned Bulgarian counterpart Boiko Borisov that Ankara may use asylum seekers to wreak havoc in the EU unless it eased visa rules for Turks and sent the aid agreed in a controversial refugee deal.
“We want our European friends to understand that the time to take more responsibility on the migrant question has come,” Yildirim said, according to the Balkan Insight news service.
“It is vitally important the agreement for visa liberalisation enters into force by the end of October. If the readmission agreement and the visa liberalisation do not enter into force, this would put Europe under huge risk.”
Migrant movements
Yildirim suggested Turkey would let migrants and refugees cross freely to Greece, just like last year, saying they would "not remain within Turkey's borders" but become "a huge regional problem that will concern the whole of Europe".
On the same day, Hungarian prime minister Viktor Orban announced plans to build a second "massive" fence on his country's border with Serbia, "capable of stopping several hundreds of thousands of people".
Several EU members baulk at bending to the will of an Ankara they see as increasingly authoritarian, but states like Bulgaria – which lie on Turkey's borders and the migration "frontline" – believe Europe has little choice.
“I do not see a perspective on a solution to the migrant crisis in Europe. All I see is every country trying to save itself in panic and looking for a clause in their EU membership contract that would allow them to act separately,” Borisov said. “Our only option is to look for a partnership with Turkey.”
Merkel reiterated support for a system to distribute refugees around the EU and criticised those who say “‘we don’t want to have Muslims in our countries’.”
Orban, Slovak premier Robert Fico and Czech president Milos Zeman have all made such comments and, now, top Polish officials also reject Merkel's refugee plan and her criticism of its opponents.
In Ukraine, too, a continuing crisis finds the EU divided on how to tackle it.
Economic sanctions
Just days after Merkel said there was no reason to lift economic sanctions against Russia over its aggression in Ukraine, the leader of Slovakia – the current EU presidency holder – met Russian president Vladimir Putin in Moscow.
“Personally, I think it is time to view the sanctions rationally and to say that they harm both the EU and Russia,” Fico said afterwards – a few hours before he met Merkel.
“They have brought absolutely nothing to [solving] the sensitive questions which they were supposed to influence. We agreed with Vladimir Putin that our common pursuit is to revive our mutual trade again.”
Orban and Zeman, as well as senior figures from states including Italy and Cyprus, have expressed a similar view– one that is anathema to the Baltic states and Poland.
June’s Brexit vote strengthened those who oppose efforts – often led by Berlin and Brussels – for deeper EU integration, and the bloc’s handling of Britain’s departure could further divide the states that remain.
Hungarian foreign minister Peter Szijjarto confirmed last Friday – to no one's surprise – that the EU was not remotely ready for Brexit talks with London.
“We don’t have a European strategy put together yet,” he told Bloomberg, “and it’s not in the EU interest to start talks before we have a strategy.”