The second Trump presidency represents a reminder to the new Irish government that Ireland’s foreign policy is about both our values and our interests. Not to reflect our values would be to betray who we are as a people. Not to take account of our interests would not only be folly but a different type of betrayal. Finding the right balance can be very challenging, but it is essential.
The need to strike such a balance between values and interests arises for Ireland on many international issues. However, the challenge is now posed in particularly stark terms by the return to the White House of a man who manifestly does not share the values of the Irish people, but whose policies, including notably on international tax arrangements, are capable of doing us significant damage.
In their new roles, Micheál Martin and Simon Harris will no doubt proceed on the basis of understanding the simple reality that Trump poses a real threat to most of the values that matter to this country, including democracy, human rights, international law, multilateral co-operation and combating climate change. However, based on that firm bedrock of values, the Government’s approach should perhaps have five broad elements.
Without any panic or catastrophising, we need already now to do more serious long-term thinking about the future shape of the Irish economy
First, it should avoid flaunting those values unnecessarily in its dealings with Washington. They should be held indelibly in our heart, but don’t need to be waved overtly in Trump’s face. That doesn’t mean that we should dilute by one jot our practical support for those values, including at the United Nations, through the EU or in our balanced approach to the Gaza conflict.
On the contrary, we have an obligation to redouble our support for those values in face of the assault they face from Trump and his amoral, self-serving billionaire pals. It does, however, mean that our pitch to the Trump administration should avoid being unnecessarily or counterproductively confrontational. Commission president Ursula von der Leyen struck a sensible note when she called for pragmatism in dealing with Trump.
Second, we should act on the basis that Ireland is by no means alone. On trade issues, for example, the European Commission acts for Europe as a whole. Trade Commissioner Maros Sevcovic understands Ireland well from the Brexit negotiations, in which he represented Irish interests forcefully and effectively. He has wisely said that the EU’s preference is to have a strong economic partnership with the US, but that it is also prepared to defend its interests if necessary.
Trump has not acted immediately on his threat to impose trade tariffs, although the examination he has commissioned of the trading practices of other countries may be a step towards provoking a tariff war. If that transpires, Ireland is fortunate that the US will have to deal with the EU as a whole, one of the most powerful trading entities in the world, exceptionally experienced in trade negotiations.
Our pitch to the Trump administration should avoid being unnecessarily or counterproductively confrontational
Incidentally, our reliance on European solidarity, in this as in so many areas, is a reminder that Ireland’s interests self-evidently require us to demonstrate, even perhaps more than in the past, appropriate reciprocal solidarity with our European partners, including on other trade issues.
Trump’s move to pull out of the OECD’s global corporate tax deal is potentially particularly significant for Ireland. But again, we are far from alone. The US withdrawal from the agreement poses a challenge and is disrespectful not only to EU countries but also to many other OECD members, including the UK, Japan, Canada and South Korea.
Third, while thinking ahead in terms of our policy responses, we should, insofar as possible, wait and see how things evolve. Trump is highly unpredictable. He probably doesn’t know yet himself whether his bite will turn out to be quite as bad as his bark; there is no doubt that barking is his forte. Moreover, the detail of his policies needs to be developed. There are apparently some vigorous debates going on within his administration, including on the pros and cons of tariffs. His detailed policy direction could also be influenced in the coming months by the positions adopted by, for example, China.
In this context, the EU Commission has rightly said that it is worth taking time to discuss Trump’s OECD move with the new US tax administration, “to better understand their asks and to explain our position”.
Fourth, in parallel with working closely with like-minded international partners, seeking to influence their thinking and leverage their support, we can deploy our national diplomatic influence in the US through appropriate ministerial visits and our well-connected and respected embassy, which will continue to make Ireland’s case to the new administration, to Congress and to the public. We have a good case to make, including about the attractiveness of Ireland to US companies and Irish investment in America. We have many friends in Irish America.
Trump’s move to pull out of the OECD’s global corporate tax deal is potentially particularly significant for Ireland. However, But again, we are far from alone
Fifth, without any panic or catastrophising, we need already now to do more serious long-term thinking about the future shape of the Irish economy, not only because of the risks posed by the new US government, but because we need to develop for ourselves a model that is sustainable into the future. If I may rework a phrase from the inaugural address, 64 years ago, of a far more admired US president, John F Kennedy, we should never adapt out of fear, but let us never fear to adapt.
The need to balance the pursuit both of values and interests in the conduct of our foreign policy, at this particularly febrile time, falls to our incoming government team. Ultimately, however, that is because the Irish people, similarly sensitive to our values and interests, have elected them to find that balance.
Bobby McDonagh is a former ambassador to London, Rome and Brussels
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