Soon, 135 cardinals from around the world will be enclosed within the Sistine Chapel, where they will begin the solemn and secretive process of choosing the next pope. The ritual of conclave is ancient – ballots burned beneath Michelangelo’s ceiling, smoke signals rising above St Peter’s Square – but the stakes are unmistakably modern.
This conclave will be the most significant in a generation, not only because it will determine the next leader of the Roman Catholic Church’s 1.4 billion members, but because it will also reveal whether Pope Francis has succeeded in transforming the church’s global leadership or merely disrupted it.
Once the pope dies, the church enters a phase known as sede vacante (literally meaning “the seat is vacant”), and the process of electing a successor begins. This responsibility lies with the College of Cardinals, of whom 135 are under the age of 80 and therefore eligible to vote in the conclave.
Before the conclave proper begins, all cardinals (voting and non-voting) gather in Rome for a series of general congregations. These meetings, which precede the formal balloting, are an essential part of the process. They provide a rare opportunity for the cardinals to meet face to face, reflect on the state of the church and begin to form impressions of who might lead it next. In 2013, it was during one such session that Cardinal Jorge Bergoglio made a powerful intervention, one that shifted perceptions and ultimately helped pave his way to the papacy.
This weekend’s gathering in Rome for the pope’s funeral marks the start of that vital pre-conclave phase. For many, it will be the first time they meet in person. These early exchanges are where informal alliances form, ideas are tested and potential front-runners quietly emerge. While there is no obvious favourite yet, bookmakers have named reformer Cardinal Luis Antonio Tagle of the Philippines and Italian Cardinal Pietro Parolin as early contenders.
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When the formal conclave begins (sometime between May 5th and 11th), the electors are housed in the Domus Sanctae Marthae, a Vatican guest house where phones and outside communication are strictly prohibited. Voting takes place inside the Sistine Chapel, under the solemn weight of tradition and secrecy, following a sworn oath. The first afternoon sees a single round of voting; thereafter, up to four ballots are held each day, two in the morning, two in the afternoon. A candidate must obtain a two-thirds majority to be elected. If, after 33 ballots, no one reaches this threshold, the cardinals may proceed to a runoff between the two leading candidates, though even in this final phase, a two-thirds majority is still required.
Nearly 80 per cent of the voting cardinals were appointed by Francis. During his 12-year pontificate, he created a more global, diverse College of Cardinals than ever before. Its members now come from 76 countries, 25 of which had never previously had representation (including Cape Verde, Luxembourg, Mongolia, Pakistan and South Sudan). The average age of the cardinals is younger, and the dominance of the Roman Curia has been disrupted.
Some cardinals have been preparing for this conclave for months, forming digital alliances and sounding out potential coalitions. A short conclave would suggest consensus, likely around a continuity candidate. A longer one would signal deeper divisions and a church at a crossroads
Despite Pope Francis’s influence over the college, observers caution against assuming cohesion. While Francis appointed the majority of electors, drawn largely from dioceses around the globe, this does not guarantee ideological unity. Many come from pastoral rather than curial backgrounds, but their theological leanings vary widely.
On one side stand the conservatives, many of them younger, doctrinally focused and eager to reassert Roman clarity on issues such as sexuality, liturgy and authority. Hungarian Cardinal Péter Erdő is a notable figure here. On the other side are the reformers, hoping to expand Francis’s legacy of compassion, decentralisation and openness. Names such as Cardinal Matteo Zuppi (Bologna) and Cardinal Jean-Claude Hollerich (Luxembourg) feature prominently. And in the middle are those uneasy with the polarisation itself: cardinals who may have admired Francis’s vision but seek a stabilising figure. Cardinals such as Odilo Scherer (São Paulo) or Pierbattista Pizzaballa (Latin Patriarch of Jerusalem), who has distinguished himself during the Israel-Palestine conflict, could emerge as consensus candidates.
Beyond theology, geopolitics may shape the outcome. Rising nationalism, tensions with China and global political uncertainty could all play a part in how cardinals assess potential candidates. Some Vatican watchers believe there may be a growing appetite for a more orderly, less charismatic figure, in contrast to Francis’s bold and often unpredictable style.
The conclave also takes place against the backdrop of a fragmented global church. Francis infuriated traditionalists from the outset with his emphasis on mercy over judgment, challenging entrenched privilege and doctrine. Moves such as allowing divorced Catholics to receive communion provoked accusations of heresy from some quarters.
Nonetheless, his more-than-decade-long papacy has seen the Catholic population grow and shift geographically. For the first time, Europe is no longer the centre of Catholic gravity. One question for the next pope will be whether to continue this trend or consolidate the church’s more traditional foundations.
Irish Catholics will be watching the conclave with cautious interest. While there is no voting cardinal currently residing in Ireland, Dublin-born Cardinal Kevin Farrell, who serves as camerlengo and prefect of the Dicastery for the Laity, Family and Life, will take part in the vote. Farrell, a close ally of Francis, played a key role in advancing the pope’s reform agenda, particularly in expanding lay involvement and supporting efforts to elevate the role of women within the church.
The question of women in the church will hang over this conclave. Under Francis, women were appointed to high-level Vatican roles for the first time. But token representation must now give way to structural change. Whether the next pope will build on this momentum or retrench will be one of the earliest and most telling signs of the church’s future direction.
Some cardinals have been preparing for this conclave for months, forming digital alliances and sounding out potential coalitions. A short conclave would suggest consensus, likely around a continuity candidate. A longer one would signal deeper divisions and a church at a crossroads.
In the end, the white smoke will rise. A name will be chosen. When the new pope steps on to the balcony of St Peter’s Basilica to deliver his first urbi et orbi blessing, he will inherit not only the keys of St Peter’s, but the daunting task of leading a deeply divided church in a world riven by conflict, inequality, and uncertainty.
Bronagh Ann McShane is research fellow in history on the Voices project at Trinity College Dublin. She is author of Irish Women in Religious Orders, 1530-1700: Suppression, Migration and Reintegration (2022)
