INSIDE POLITICS:The real problem from now on is that cuts in spending will bite into services for some of the most vulnerable, writes STEPHEN COLLINS
THE COALITION has made it safely past its third birthday and into the Dáil summer recess. That is no mean achievement, given the enormous stresses and strains it has had to cope with during the worst economic crisis since the 1930s.
Whether Fianna Fáil and the Green Party will be able to hold together and agree on another swingeing budget for next year will be the dominant political issue in the autumn. Given their low standing in the polls both parties have a strong incentive to postpone an election for as long as possible but it will take a great deal of resolve and a bit of luck to make it to the end of the year.
Whatever they might say in public, the Opposition parties would like to see the Government take the responsibility for another tough budget. Ideally Fine Gael and Labour would like to have an election in the spring or early summer of 2011 while the Coalition parties would prefer to have it a year later at the end of a full Dáil term.
Given the uncertainties of politics there is no guarantee that either Government or Opposition will get what they wish for. Events have a habit of upsetting the best laid plans but, as long as they stick together, the Coalition parties have a chance of remaining in the driving seat. Ministers will take a detailed look at the budget options over the next couple of weeks before going off on holidays. They are unlikely to get much comfort from their deliberations but at least they will have a fair idea where they stand before heading for the beaches.
The real problem from now on is that cuts in public spending will bite into services for some of the most vulnerable people in society. The protest outside Leinster House on Wednesday by disability groups already affected by cuts was probably a mild foretaste of what is to come.
The introduction of a property tax might have enabled the Government to avoid some of the deeper cuts but both Coalition parties now appear to have backed away from the idea. The Opposition parties had already lined up to oppose a property tax so it looks as if the political system won’t be able to deal with the issue this year at least.
Personalities will be every bit as important as policy issues in determining how long the Coalition lasts and what will happen in the next election. The leaders of the three main parties have been in the spotlight in recent weeks for very different reasons.
The low standing of Taoiseach Brian Cowen in the opinion polls is a worry for Fianna Fáil TDs but there was barely a ripple of dissent when the issue was raised at the parliamentary party meeting last Tuesday. Only his long-term critics, John McGuinness and Noel O’Flynn, had anything negative to say about their leader and only three other TDs contributed to the debate.
Within Fianna Fáil there is huge sympathy for Cowen’s plight and his TDs recognise that whoever was leading the party in the current circumstances would have had a huge battle to retain public support. Nonetheless, many TDs are gripped by a gnawing anxiety that the Taoiseach’s negative public image will have disastrous consequences at the next election.
Those worries are not voiced at the parliamentary party meetings out of loyalty to the Taoiseach and also because no alternative leader has emerged. Cowen told his party that his leadership was not probationary and he intended to lead on into the next election. In the absence of a challenger that will happen.
Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny did face a challenge and the manner in which he fought his ground may even work to his long-term advantage. He showed the public hidden qualities but he needs to build on that to convince a significant segment of the electorate that he has what it takes to be taoiseach in these difficult times.
The appointment of Michael Noonan as finance spokesman, in place of the more cerebral Richard Bruton, may give the party a sharper edge and his re-emergence in the front rank of politics will be watched keenly.
A core of Kenny’s opponents within Fine Gael has not been quelled and could even resume plotting against him if the party’s poll ratings begin to slip in the autumn. Another heave would appear to be suicidal but politics is not always a rational business.
One of the reasons for the continuing unease in Fine Gael has been the rise of Labour in the polls. Much of this is down to the position Eamon Gilmore has been able to carve out for himself as the most popular party leader in the country. That has enabled him to make a realistic pitch to be considered as a candidate for the taoiseach’s office.
It was the Labour surge in the last Irish Times poll that prompted the heave against Kenny and Fine Gael will continue to look anxiously over its shoulder at the performance of its potential partner. Fianna Fáil will look even more anxiously at the threat Labour poses to its seats countrywide.
Labour has been stung by the fact that the media has given wide currency to Government claims that it has not offered any realistic policy alternatives. However, its refusal to commit on the Croke Park deal and the decision to oppose the ban on stag hunting, which Labour has long advocated, has allowed its opponents to claim that it is engaged in purely populist politics.
Whatever it is doing, Labour is connecting with the voters, and one of the intriguing battles in the autumn will be the tussle with Fine Gael for the position of the biggest party in the polls. The dynamic between the Opposition rivals could be every bit as unpredictable as that between the parties in Government.