Every other day there is a media outcry about the shocking nature of road accident statistics, followed by an instant analysis of the latest theory concerning the main reasons for the problem. Blame is placed, in turn, on speeding, bad roads, drink-driving, L-drivers, young men, and so on.
There are few forms of sudden death as shocking and despair-making as death in a road accident, and of course there can never be an acceptable level of road carnage. But often, it seems, the public hysteria acts as a barrier to apprehension.
Last week, for example, there were reports that the European Commission would take action against Ireland unless we halve the current level of road fatalities by 2010.
One would have assumed from these reports that Ireland is way down at the bottom of the European road safety league. But this is not the case. For several years now, Ireland has remained resolutely in its mid-table position in comparison with other EU states in the matter of traffic accidents and road deaths.
By the standard indicator of road deaths per 100,000 population, Ireland is seen to have a road fatality rate roughly half that of Portugal, and significantly better than Greece, Austria, Belgium, France, Spain and Luxembourg. When the indicator of fatalities per billion kilometres is used, our record appears better than Germany's. In statistical terms, the comparisons which reflect worst on this country are with the UK and Sweden, where fatality rates are consistently half ours.
The other surprising aspect is that Ireland's road safety performance has been improving dramatically over several decades. In recent years, allowing for occasional blips, there has been a gradual downward trend in the number of road deaths, and this despite a massive increase in the number of vehicles on Irish roads (a 60 per cent increase since 1990).
Provisional figures for 2000 indicate there was a 10 per cent increase in road fatalities over 1999, but the 1999 figure - 413 - compared with 458 in 1998 and 472 in 1997. Last year's final figure is likely to be slightly below the 1998 figure. Morover, the general pattern, best measured by the fatality rate per million registered vehicles has improved significantly in the past decade, from 454 persons killed per million vehicles in 1990, to 258 per million vehicles in 1999. The absolute number of fatal accidents on Irish roads is now just over half what it was 30 years ago, despite the number of vehicles increasing by many multiples.
These statistics, of course, are cold comfort to those who have been bereaved by the accidents which have occurred, but they do indicate that the present outcry concerning road deaths lacks a coherent analysis. More young men die by their own hands than on the roads, and it is almost impossible to have public attention focused on this. Indeed, one category of road accident, involving single vehicles only, accounts for more than one-third of all fatalities, and has increased - against the trend - by 50 per cent in the past decade.
The vast majority of victims in those accidents are male, and there is considerable circumstantial evidence that these statistics may mask a phenomenon of hidden suicide. In other words, perhaps much of the problem identified with the undoubted recklessness of some young men on the road might be addressed by focusing on the pain of young men in a more general context.
The point of drawing attention to the above facts is not to suggest there is room for complacency or self-congratulation, but to observe that one would have little inkling of the true picture from media coverage of this subject in recent times. The thrust of such coverage has been to create sensation and hysteria and to apportion blame. The most favoured scapegoat has been the newer driver, particularly males.
It is alleged, for example, that provisional licence-holders are the cause of a disproportionately high number of traffic accidents and fatalities. However, there is little evidence in the statistics to back up such a contention: the figures indicate a higher relative risk but no greater than you would expect by virtue of the inexperience of such drivers. Neither is there any hard statistical evidence that such drivers are less likely to have accidents if accompanied.
Many of our impressions about road accidents are garnered from data used by insurance companies in assessing relative risks, and these generally rely on probability ratios rather than absolute behavioural statistics. Much information is compiled by the National Roads Authority, the Garda Siochana, the National Safety Council and the Irish Insurance Federation, but there is no central body responsible for collating all the information and identifying the most likely areas in which improvements can be made.
Underlying much of the hysteria concerning road traffic accidents is a denial of the reality that occasional fatalities are an inevitable consequence of the use of motor vehicles. No society has anything like a perfect road safety record. And so, while it is understandable that we will become distraught over each and every accident, it is equally inevitable that we will seek to avoid by dint of hysterical reaction, the trade-off of human life in exchange for convenience that our dependence on road transport makes impossible to avoid.