The Central Statistics Office (CSO) in its annual estimates of population change and movement provides some valuable insights. CSO figures in the year to end April, 2015 show a fall in net outward emigration: those leaving the country have exceeded those arriving – but by a smaller margin than a year earlier. A breakdown of the data shows that of those (80,900) who emigrated, Irish nationals accounted for 43.6 per cent of the total – a 13.3 per cent decline on the year to April 2014. While the number of Irish people returning from abroad showed a slight (4 per cent) rise over that same period.
The migration patterns for Irish nationals would seem to indicate a cautious reaction to the improvement in the Irish economy, which is understandable. Unemployment – at 9.5 per cent – has fallen from a peak of 15 per cent in recent years, the rate of economic growth has continued to rise, and the public finances have stabilised. But while the economic outlook remains bright, clearly many who in recent years have emigrated may well await some further reassurance about Ireland’s longer-term economic prospects before they consider coming back.
The 1990s saw a large number of emigrants return as a booming domestic economy produced strong growth and rapidly rising employment levels. The prospects then, however, were much better for returning emigrants. Houses were more available and more affordable, and mortgage finance was easier to raise. Jobs were more secure. Since the recession, a more competitive labour market has greatly altered employment patterns, in Ireland as elsewhere. Full-time employment is less widely available than before. And in addition, Ireland's current high personal tax rates – which are levied at relatively low levels of income – represent a further financial disincentive for those working abroad and paying less tax, to move back home.
The rise and fall in emigration numbers over the years can be seen broadly to reflect the state of the domestic economy, with falling unemployment now helping to reverse and reduce the high level of emigration. CSO figures show that emigrants have been very responsive to changing economic fortunes of individual countries. Emigration to Australia has fallen sharply as its economy has contracted, and the number of people moving to Canada rose significantly in the year to April, reflecting changes in working holiday visas. One worrying statistic, however, in the CSO data is the increasing evidence of a "brain drain" of talent from Ireland. Migration movements showed a further net loss of third level graduates, as more leave Ireland than return. The latest figures, which show the gap is widening rather than narrowing, represent a huge loss both to the economy and to society, and deserve more attention than they have so far received from Government.