Candidate Trump: Is the impossible now possible?

‘The Donald’ may be the official candidate of his party – now also its leader – but many of its key figures still refuse to back him

Even the bikers had mixed feelings. One might have thought that the weekend Rolling Thunder rally of bikers in Washington DC to honour US war casualties and dead was Donald Trump's natural constituency. Surely a rally of red-neck veterans – forgive the "biker" stereotyping – would lap up the nativist, "America first" rhetoric of the man who is now the candidate for the Republican Party.

But it's not just that simple. "Do we love the bikers? Yes. We love the bikers," Trump roared at the crowd among whose number were many dyed-in-the-wool supporters, not least "Bikers for Trump" which has more than 46,000 "likes" on Facebook. Others wore "Hillary for Prison 2016" badges and t-shirts. Yet reporters roaming the crowd also found many who would be voting for Trump not on his merits but because they despise Hillary Clinton more, in this face-off of the two most disliked candidates in memory. "Anybody but Hillary!" Others would not be voting at all. It is far from a secure base.

This is Trump’s challenge nationally. Polls in recent days suggest a rebound and narrowing of the gap with Clinton – the latest Real Clear Politics aggregate puts her on 43.8 to his 42.8 per cent. Commentators are again asking the question “Is the impossible, a Trump presidency, possible?”

But if he is to be elected 45th president of the US, Trump must not only begin to reach out to those parts of the Democratic family that appear now beyond reach – including women, African Americans, and Hispanics – but lock down completely blue-collar workers, some of whom are natural Republicans but also form part of the disillusioned Democratic Rust Belt victims of slowdown who trooped into the Republican fold for Ronald Reagan and who have welcomed Trump's hard line on immigration and trade.

READ MORE

Since 1992 Democratic presidents have consistently won 18 states, securing 242 of the 270 electoral votes they need to win. To win, Trump must take key swing states like crucial bellwether Florida and Pennsylvania which has gone Democratic in the last six straight elections.

In Pennsylvania he will make inroads into the working-class vote, but at the price of alienating many middle-class Republicans, he can't afford to lose, not least women, who may well have been irretrievably antagonised in the primary campaign. A similar primary campaign legacy is there in Florida too, particularly in the Miami area where Cuban migrants see his anti-immigrant rhetoric aggravating racial tensions and resent his bullying of local hero Marco Rubio.

Trump may be the official candidate of his party – now also its leader – but many of its key figures still refuse to back him. His organisation remains shambolic, largely a one-man band. With polls now showing the presidency within his grasp, has he already burned too many bridges?