Fine Gael and the Labour Party will not be in a position to form a government on their own if the levels of party support identified in the latest Irish Times/IpsosMRBI opinion poll are replicated on election day. Not alone would the Coalition Government fail to be returned in its present form, the Labour Party could lose a majority of its Dáil seats while Fine Gael's representation would also fall.
The opinion poll, conducted earlier this week, will provide hope for Fianna Fáil because of an increase in the level of its support at the expense of Sinn Féin. At the same time, support for the smaller parties and Independents recovered slightly. These shifts in allegiance were all within the margin of statistical error, suggesting the electorate has not yet fully engaged with the process. One-in-five voters remain undecided, so that the quality of campaigning during the coming weeks will probably decide the outcome.
On the basis of these figures, Fianna Fáil leader Micheál Martin may be placed in the unenviable position of having to reconsider his rejection of a coalition arrangement with Fine Gael or precipitate a second election. An alternative arrangement, involving Fine Gael, the Labour Party and disparate elements from “Independents and Others” is feasible, but it would be inherently unstable. Sinn Féin has been written out of the government-formation script by both Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil and while support for the party has dipped, it is poised to make significant seat gains.
Fine Gael, at 28 per cent, has dropped two points since last November, losing the impetus it gained from the budget, while public satisfaction with Enda Kenny slipped one point to 32 per cent. The Labour Party has remained becalmed with 7 per cent support, but Joan Burton's approval rating increased marginally to 29 per cent. In contrast, approval ratings for both Gerry Adams and Micheál Martin fell by two points, to 28 and 27 per cent respectively.
The findings of recent polls reflect the long and convoluted lead-in to the election, as Government parties engaged in a series of damage-limitation exercises involving financial dealings, social housing and healthcare while Opposition parties and Independents pressed home their advantage. As the election neared, support for Sinn Féin went into decline. In Dublin, Fianna Fáil failed to gain traction while approval for smaller parties and Independents soared.
There is no doubting the disconnect that exists with politicians or the simmering anger of the electorate. While public satisfaction with the Government’s performance has risen during the past year, some 60 per cent of those questioned – predominantly from lower income groups – have remained dissatisfied. Addressing these concerns through election manifestos is likely to be a priority in the coming days.