The prospect of devolved government in Northern Ireland collapsing and direct rule being re-imposed has crept closer because of Sinn Féin’s unwillingness to implement the terms of the Stormont House Agreement on welfare spending and to remain within an allocated budget. For its part, Sinn Féin has accused the British government of breaching the Agreement by introducing additional austerity measures. Both sides appear anxious to avoid a breakdown, while adopting entrenched positions on fiscal issues.
It is all very complicated. While Northern Secretary Theresa Villiers told a Conservative party conference the British government would not fund a more generous welfare system in Northern Ireland than in the rest of the UK, it had already done so by providing an additional €564 million under the Agreement. However, "no more money" was available. In response, Deputy First Minister Martin McGuinness maintained that as a society emerging from conflict, Northern Ireland faced unique and specific challenges that the British government had not recognised.
There is no doubt Sinn Féin will continue with its efforts to leverage additional funding from Westminster to protect welfare recipients. Presiding over cuts in Northern Ireland, while fighting a general election in the Republic, would prove embarrassing. On the other hand, a collapse of the Executive would do Sinn Féin even greater damage as a credible party of government. Mr McGuinness left himself wriggle room on that front by declaring that direct rule would result in a Tory onslaught on all public services and that the institutions were, therefore, worth saving.
Ms Villiers’s decision to concentrate on budgetary matters as the greatest threat to devolved government, rather than paramilitary issues, would suggest she believes the controversy over the existence of Provisional IRA structures can be finessed. The three prominent individuals tasked with providing a factual assessment of the “structure, role and purpose of all paramilitary organisations in Northern Ireland” will report to talks involving the two governments and the five main parties before the end of this month. Findings that a residual Provisional IRA structure exists – even if committed to a political role – might then be addressed through an organisation like the former Independent Monitoring Commission.
If agreement can be reached on that issue, the parties will have to grapple with keeping within their allocated budget. Ms Villiers says she is willing to negotiate, but not on providing additional money for welfare. Mr McGuinness regards direct rule as the worst possible outcome. Given their common interest in maintaining a power-sharing Executive, it should be possible for all parties to reach a compromise. Trust, however, is another matter.