INSIDE POLITICS:Convincing voters to stick with the devil they know worked for the party in the last general election and may reduce losses this time, writes STEPHEN COLLINS.
THE OUTCOME of the 2007 general election was decided by an aggressive Fianna Fáil counter-attack in the last week of the campaign that turned a potential defeat into a decisive victory.
The party’s strategists are confident that a similar approach will be enough to avert
a catastrophe on June 5th.
Over the past few weeks it appeared that a tsunami of hostility towards the Government would sweep Fianna Fáil before it and, in the process, fatally undermine the capacity of the Coalition to continue in office for much
longer.
In recent days, though, Taoiseach Brian Cowen and his Ministers have come out fighting and party supporters are beginning to hope they can turn the tide once more.
While they don’t expect a miracle, there is a belief in Fianna Fáil that the scale of the defeat can be limited.
The retention of at least three and possibly even all four of the party’s European seats and the loss of less than 50 county council seats is now the target. If that is achieved it will be presented as a respectable result in the circumstances.
A concerted attack has been mounted on Labour leader Eamon Gilmore, the most popular party leader in the country at present. He walked into an uppercut in the Dáil last Tuesday by displaying a lack of detailed knowledge on the complex issue of the National Asset Management Agency (Nama).
The failure to appreciate that good as well as bad development loans would be taken over by Nama might have been excusable, given the complexity of the issue, if Gilmore and Labour had not been so dogmatic in their opposition to the project.
The other prong of the Fianna Fáil fightback has been to point up the very real differences that exist between Fine Gael and Labour on issues such as Nama and the state of the public finances.
The message is that no coherent alternative government exists and voters should stick to the devil they know in these terribly difficult times.
Reports coming back from all the parties on the campaign do suggest that the Fianna Fáil vote has at least stabilised over the past week or so. The party’s core supporters are no longer ashamed to admit they vote Fianna Fáil and that is certainly the first step in salvaging something. The objective for the party now is to get its own vote out in the teeth of a hostile gale.
A successful damage-limitation exercise is certainly achievable, even if the party vote is almost cut in half by comparison with the general election two years ago when it won 42 per cent of the first preference vote. Anything over 20 per cent of the vote will deliver one seat in each of the four European constituencies so holding what it has is by no means out of the question.
As to the local elections Fianna Fáil won 309 seats in 2004 with 32 per cent of the vote so a slide down into the 25 per cent range might not mean total disaster, particularly given the vagaries of PR.
That said, a result that made Fine Gael the biggest party in the State in the first election of any kind since its predecessor Cumann na nGaedheal won the general election of 1927 would be a significant event. If the main Opposition party actually manages to trounce the old enemy by pulling well ahead in terms of the popular vote then Irish politics could be changed utterly.
The signs are that Fine Gael is on a roll in Dublin, and not just in its traditionally middle-class bailiwick. The party has broadened its appeal, mainly by being the leading alternative to a Fianna Fáil party that has become the focus of such intense anger.
Outside Dublin the traditional Fianna Fáil vote is holding up much better, particularly in rural areas. The key to the final result will be whether voters in the other urban areas of the country and the wide commuter belt around Dublin respond as negatively as those in the capital itself. If they do then Fianna Fáil could be buried in a landslide.
The tactic of Ministers who claim that a Fine Gael-Labour alternative is not viable, because of contradictory policies, could actually work in Fine Gael’s favour. It may only help to persuade angry voters that opting for the main Opposition party is the most effective way of damaging the Government beyond repair.
The arrival of George Lee in Dublin South has not only galvanised Fine Gael support in that constituency but all across the country. It has served to emphasise the party’s stature as the main component of any alternative Government and given it the kind of appeal that has been lacking since the FitzGerald era.
The impact of the election outcome on the Government’s future will depend on how it is interpreted.
That is why Fianna Fáil is so keen to manage expectations and suggest that the attainable objective of retaining four European seats would amount to a good performance.
An allied issue is how the Green Party will perform. If it cannot even match that poor council performance some supporters will inevitably question its involvement in coalition with Fianna Fáil.
The decision of the party to insist on a review of the programme for government this summer shows that it is worried about what may happen. At the very least, the process is designed to give the Greens an opportunity to highlight their separate identity but, if needs be, it could also mark the first steps in an exit strategy.
The framing of the 2010 budget in the autumn will be crucial to the Government’s survival. If agreement on a framework for a new tax system and reform of the public service can be found in a new programme then the Coalition could be well on its way to an agreed budget.
However, disagreements on the programme will inevitably spill over into the budget discussions.
The result of the elections on June 5th will have an enormous impact on the attitude of both Coalition parties to the prospect of a joint future.