There is particularly good news for Fianna Fail and for the Taoiseach, Mr Bertie Ahern, in today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll. After months of negative developments for the party, accompanied by a declining popularity with the electorate, the fortunes of Fianna Fail and of the party leader have been transformed. And the timing could not be better. With less than a week to go to the European and local elections, support for the party has increased by five points to 51 per cent, while Mr Ahern's own satisfaction rating has rebounded by nine points to 67 per cent. At the same time, satisfaction with the Coalition Government has increased by 7 points to 58 per cent.
This turnaround in the fortunes of the party appears to have been fashioned by the strong election campaigns being waged throughout the country, particularly in relation to the European Parliament elections. Certainly there is no other obvious explanation for the dramatic shift in support, although the continuing strength of the economy could have fed into the Government's higher satisfaction figure. The findings of the poll in relation to the European elections are extraordinary and, if given effect by the electorate next Friday, will transform traditional voting patterns.
In the normal course of events, candidates are not elected on the first count - Brian Crowley's performance in Munster on the last occasion was the exception - but this opinion poll points to seven candidates, five from Fianna Fail and two from Fine Gael, being elected on the strength of their first preference votes. In that regard, the allocation of the extremely high `undecided' vote, in accordance with the strength of individual candidates, may have coloured the outcome. The level of `don't knows' ranged from 14 per cent in Munster to 25 per cent in Dublin. Respondents were also asked what parties they would support if a general election was held tomorrow in the aftermath of the candidate-selection process and, given Fianna Fail's strong European candidate base, this may have influenced voters.
The findings provide little comfort for the Opposition parties which had hoped to make significant gains at the expense of Fianna Fail and to create a platform from which an alternative government might be formed. In that regard, Fine Gael has some reason for satisfaction because the party could gain an extra seat - or even two - in the European Parliament at the expense of the Green Party. But the message is uniformly bleak for the Labour Party which sees its popular vote decline by four points to 11 per cent and its chances of gaining an extra European seat reduced to zero.
The main concern for the Opposition parties at this stage must be that Fianna Fail's strong opinion poll showing will translate into county council and other local authority seats. And, given the increase in the level of satisfaction with the Coalition Government - in spite of the sharp drop in support for the Progressive Democrats - such a development must be regarded as likely. Not only is the electorate satisfied with the performance of the Government, it would prefer a similar arrangement to operate after the next general election. All in all, the poll results can be expected to galvanise Fianna Fail and provide an important morale boost for its election workers at a critical time.