Timing of resignation was a surprise but not the decision itself, writes Stephen Collins, Political Editor
The timing of Pat Rabbitte's resignation came as a surprise but the decision itself wasn't a complete shock. His six-year term as leader was due to expire in October of next year and he had to decide well in advance of that whether he wanted to stay on and lead his party into the next election or bow out before a divisive challenge.
Rabbitte pointed out yesterday that he went into the recent general election with the twin objectives of winning more Labour seats in the Dáil and forming an alternative government in alliance with Fine Gael. In the event, Labour won the same number of seats but, much more crucially, failed to get into power.
"As leader I take responsibility for that outcome," he said, adding, "I had my stint. I gave it my best shot." However, he was not prepared to accept that he had made the wrong strategic decision to fight the election as part of an alternative alliance with Fine Gael.
"I remain absolutely convinced that it was correct at the time to offer the people the choice of an alternative, reforming government. It was not successful but unsuccessful only by a narrow margin."
While the majority of his party members supported his strategy, a number of senior figures in the party and in the trade union movement disagreed profoundly with it. They wanted to keep open the option of going into power with Fianna Fáil after the election. There was no open revolt but it was hardly a secret that some were unhappy.
After the election, rumours of contact between some disaffected individuals in Labour and Fianna Fáil served to persuade the Greens that if they did not do a deal with Bertie Ahern, then Labour ultimately would. That influenced the dynamic within the Green Party and led to the overwhelming vote of party members in favour of coalition.
With the Fianna Fáil-Green-Progressive Democrat government securely in place by the beginning of the summer holidays, Rabbitte had to weigh up whether there was any point in staying on as leader until next year, when he would almost certainly face a challenge.
The chances are that he would easily have seen off any opponent, as his strategy had the support of the majority of party members, but a contest would not have helped his long-term chances of doing better in the next election.
More to the point, he had to ask himself whether he wanted to face the prospect of another hard five-year slog until the next election in the hope that the result might be different. Having rolled the stone all the way up the hill once, Rabbitte clearly decided he did not want to become a Labour Sisyphus, condemned to repeat the endeavour over and over again.
It was the timing of Rabbitte's departure before the end of the summer that was the real cause of surprise. There was a feeling in the party that he would wait to see how things developed in the autumn after the Taoiseach has given his evidence to the Mahon tribunal. There was also a view that he would wait and give his new TDs and Senators a chance to show their paces before deciding on his future.
Another reason for the surprise was that a national executive meeting was scheduled for September 1st, the parliamentary party is due to meet for a day-long session on September 18th and a national conference is scheduled for November in Wexford.
Nobody in the party was expecting Rabbitte to go before the September 1st meeting. It seems, though, that after thinking things over during his holidays in Kerry, he decided to make a clean break so that a new leader could be in place early in the next Dáil session.
Liz McManus, the deputy leader, is now the acting leader of the party and will remain in the post until a new leader is elected.
The procedure to be followed is that at the National Executive meeting on September 1st, a closing date will be set for the receipt of nominations for leader. The election must be held within 45 days of that and all members paid up for the past two years will be eligible to vote. The method of election will be by single transferable vote.
There was no immediate rush to join the contest, with McManus keeping her options open when asked if she would be a candidate. The recently appointed Leas-Cheann Comhairle, Brendan Howlin, was also keeping his options open, saying he would take soundings and think about the issue before coming to a final decision.
Howlin was defeated for the leadership by Ruairí Quinn in 1997 and again by Pat Rabbitte in 2002. It could be third time lucky for him but he may be reluctant to take the risk. He will also have to decide what to do about his recent elevation to a post that carries the salary and perks of a Minister of State.
Eamon Gilmore, the other defeated candidate from 2002, has already been installed as the bookies' favourite. An effective performer inside and outside the Dáil, he would be a formidable candidate.
There are a number of other possible candidates. Roisin Shortall ran the last time around and may do so again as the representative of the left-wing TDs not enamoured of the Fine Gael alliance. Joan Burton, the party's finance spokeswoman, is a formidable intellect who has broadened her base in the party in recent years, while Willie Penrose, who represents the more traditional rural wing of the party, is another possible contender.
The last leadership election in 2002 generated a healthy debate within the party. Rabbitte emerged as the victor precisely because he convinced the members that he would not do a deal with Fianna Fáil.
He repeated his belief yesterday that to have gone into power with Fianna Fáil after the recent election would have done serious long-term damage to the Labour Party.
It will be interesting to see if the views of the membership have changed on this issue following yet another Fianna Fáil election victory.