Enda Kenny has survived one of the most dangerous weeks in his political life. A motion of no confidence in the Dáil, water protests on the streets and ominous rumblings in his own party could have combined to undermine his position but the various threats were contained, for the present at least.
Sinn Féin’s motion of no confidence in the Taoiseach actually helped Kenny to get the Dáil week off to a good start. As routinely happens when a motion of no confidence is tabled, the Government responds with a counter-motion proposing confidence and all business is suspended until it is voted on.
It put Kenny in the driving seat when the Dáil resumed on Tuesday. Government backbenchers had no option but to row in behind him and vote confidence in his leadership even if some of his own TDs did so with misgivings.
The panic that had gripped elements of the Fine Gael parliamentary party a few days earlier following the party's slide in the latest Irish Times poll was set aside as the Government went into defensive mode in the face of the Opposition attack.
Kenny, Tánaiste Joan Burton and senior Ministers were given an opportunity to defend their economic record in detail. Whether it cut much ice with the public is debatable, but it put the focus of Dáil debate where the Government wants it – on the economy.
One of the most interesting speeches for its tone and content was that delivered by Minister for Agriculture Simon Coveney, who launched a no-holds-barred assault on Sinn Féin in defence of his leader.
The Opposition attack was as predictable as the Government defence, and the debate ended with a comfortable majority for the Coalition of 86 votes to 55.
Interestingly, Lucinda Creighton and the other ex-Fine Gael rebels, with the exception of Terence Flanagan, voted with Sinn Féin and against the party for which they were elected in 2011.
With the Dáil confidence motion out of the way, attention shifted to the water march on Wednesday. The organisers had been hoping to get more than 100,000 on the streets but in the event the crowd was in the region of 30,000.
What was striking about the demonstration was the way it was dominated and run by Sinn Féin. The Trotskyite TDs who had made the running on the water protests were sidelined on the day by the massed ranks of Shinners with their Tricolours and party banners. Having been outflanked on the water issue by the hard left in the recent Dublin South West byelection, Sinn Féin was determined to stamp its authority on the protest movement and it managed the task efficiently.
Main protest
The Sinn Féin dominance ensured that the main protest on Merrion Square was peaceful and good humoured and there was no repetition of the menacing scenes that marred the Jobstown protest against the Tánaiste a few weeks ago.
While there was a sense of relief in Government that the protest was not bigger it was still an impressive turnout for a cold weekday before Christmas. It reflects the fact that Irish politics has taken a new turn and it is impossible to predict where it will ultimately lead.
The disorderly scenes in the Dáil this week, with Ceann Comhairle Sean Barrett’s authority being flouted and another TD expelled, showed a system fraying at the edges. They presage the battles for position that will take place in and out of the Dáil over the coming months.
Sinn Féin will attempt to regain ground lost to the small left-wing parties in recent electoral contests and they in turn will probably try to stage further street protests to retain the limelight.
Creighton appears set on trying to launch some kind of political party or movement, but she is facing competition from Shane Ross, who is trying to put together a rival loose band of Independents to capitalise on the huge surge for Independents in the opinion polls.
Meanwhile Fianna Fáil has held a steady course and will present itself at the next election as the only Opposition force that can be trusted to take office.
In the face of the clamour from all of the forces arrayed against it, the Coalition faces a huge challenge to try to regain the initiative. Talk of a spring budget statement to try to put the focus on the economy makes sense. For the past 12 months the Coalition has allowed the Opposition to dominate the political agenda. If it doesn’t get a hold of it in the new year events could slip out of control.
Political logic
All political logic dictates that the Coalition should hold together for the next 12 months, with an election early in 2016 when the benefits of next year’s budget measures begin to flow.
The problem is that events always have the capacity to destabilise a vulnerable government. The previous government fell apart with over a year to run when the Greens pulled the plug on Fianna Fáil even though both partners knew an election would end in disaster for them.
In the current Coalition Labour TDs look capable of holding their nerve, regardless of what comes at them, but the panic merchants in Fine Gael are capable of doing something foolish at any stage.
Kenny may have survived a tough week but there are plenty more of them ahead.