Monday’s British legislation to set aside parts of the Northern Ireland protocol had long been semaphored by various camps in Westminster, so we can assume that the responses from Dublin and Brussels had been similarly scripted in advance.
Nonetheless, there was no masking the anger in Dublin, and Simon Coveney’s phone call with Liz Truss — in which the foreign secretary formally gave notice of the legislation — was reportedly arctic in tone.
While the EU has indicated that it will begin legal action against the UK as early as this week, the move is part of a calibrated reaction which will not mean disruption to trade for the foreseeable future. Instead, they will hold off from any direct retaliatory action against the UK while they wait and see how political events — including the uncertain future of British prime minister Boris Johnson — unfold at Westminster.
The legal action will put down a marker, but for now Dublin and Brussels will take a “softly-softly” approach to the British threat to the Northern Ireland protocol, according to senior sources in both capitals, while they see how events play out in London.
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[ UK publishes bill to override much of Northern Ireland protocolOpens in new window ]
The prevailing analysis in the EU camp is that the forces guiding British policy at present have more to do with internal Conservative party politics than any worked-out view of the national interest. As such, the EU and Irish Government believe that the situation in London is unstable and difficult to predict. “It’s not rational,” says one Irish official.
Senior officials and politicians in Dublin and Brussels are scathing about the behaviour of the British government, regarding the UK position as incoherent, reckless, disingenuous and frequently mendacious. Even by the standards that Brexit has brought to these things, the level of ill-feeling that the British move has caused is remarkable.
The worsening of relations between the UK and the EU brings two principal worries for Dublin. First, is the impact on Northern Ireland. As Coveney and Taoiseach Micheál Martin have emphasised in recent days, the North tends to make progress when the two governments are working closely together. There have certainly been many disagreements between Dublin and London over the years, but those stewarding the process in the Irish Government have felt that they were engaged in a common project with shared goals.
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That is no longer the case; Dublin feels that Johnson and other elements of his party are not seeking to solve problems in Northern Ireland but rather to use Northern Ireland to achieve their domestic political goals. For many people at or near the top of Government in the Republic, that is depressing and intensely worrying.
[ Protocol bill is more extreme and far-reaching than anticipatedOpens in new window ]
The second worry in Government Buildings is where this might go. Brexit has fallen very far down the list of priorities for the EU, and the commission will simply not devote the same time and energy to the problem that it did in the years 2016-2020. If the British government continues with its plans to disapply the protocol, the EU will first follow the legal route, as it signalled today. But if the British walk away from the treaty, then the EU can hardly be expected to observe its side of the bargain.
And if the trade agreements between the two sides crumble, then the Irish Government will be faced with the prospect its predecessor dreaded: choosing between a Border in Ireland or a border between Ireland and the rest of the EU. That’s what Dublin wants to avoid at all costs. But it can’t do so on its own.
