If there is a single word which sums up the consistent ask from the business community and civic society in Northern Ireland in regard to Brexit, that word is certainty.
It has been their call since the UK voted to leave the European Union in 2016, throughout negotiations over the Border and the backstop and the eventual Brexit withdrawal agreement; and it remains their call 18 months after the UK’s departure from the EU.
Ironically, it has been the Northern Ireland protocol – the part of the withdrawal agreement that has become politically so contentious – that has finally provided a measure of that certainty.
There are caveats, such as the continued operation of grace periods, which mean it has not been fully implemented. However, businesses do at least know what the post-Brexit rules are, for the meantime anyway, and are, as one business leader put it this week, “just getting on with it”.
While it is widely accepted that there are problems with its operation which need to be amended, there are also clear benefits. The preference from business representative organisations in the North is for issues to be resolved through negotiation within the existing framework of the protocol.
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They do not support unilateral action by the UK government or the “scrapping” of the protocol – despite the impression given to the contrary by that government, or indeed by the DUP – but businesses question, not for the first time, whether anybody in London is listening.
The North has its own political problems: it has been without a functioning government since elections in May, when the DUP refused to nominate a speaker as part of its protest against the protocol.
Yet if Stormont is in stasis, in Westminster there has been chaos, with a series of controversies for outgoing prime minister Boris Johnson eventually precipitating a Tory leadership contest, which has forced Belfast even further down the agenda.
One of the candidates will be responsible for not just for tackling this but restoring devolved government and none of the hopefuls has indicated any desire to depart from Johnson on the protocol.
“There are very few [people] over here who will have a vote for the prime minister,” says Roger Pollen, head of the Federation of Small Businesses in Northern Ireland.
“None of them are really going to be bothered by the protocol, they’re going to be bothered by fuel taxes and fuel duties, income tax.
“Somehow, we need to make sure that the candidates understand that failure to get the protocol sorted is going to undermine all of their other policies.”
This is what is at stake in London: in Belfast, the continued lack of government and the potential for future uncertainty injected by the Northern Ireland Protocol Bill mean that business and wider society are, once again, making that familiar call for certainty.
To the UK’s next prime minister, these are their messages from the North.
Stephen Kelly is the chief executive of Manufacturing NI, which represents 550 manufacturing firms in Northern Ireland.
“Taking unilateral action will only prolong the issues here and not actually arrive at a sustainable place. It is our collective view that a negotiated outcome is the only thing that will be sustainable.
“We have very significant concerns about the content of what’s in this [Northern Ireland protocol] Bill and we are communicating that to the UK government, by a series of questions, that it is not clear, should the UK take this unilateral action, that what they’ve suggested will actually work.
“If you consider this proposal about a red and green channel, they’re basically saying it will be up to businesses to declare whether stuff they’re bringing in would be sold on to the EU market.
“That’s fine if you’re a GB retailer, but what if you’re a wholesaler in Derry, one of those cash and carries, and someone arrives in a van, are you to check every van outside to see it hasn’t got an Irish number plate on it?
“So, the reality is we’ll continue to have a border in the Irish Sea under this legislation but actually instead of having a really simple model with five points of entry we will have the 90,000 borders.
“The border will move inside every business in the North, the vast majority of which are SMEs and don’t have the capacity to handle a risk like this that could put them out of business.
“We need to use whatever time is available to negotiate, but the UK governing party is working on identifying a new prime minister who will set the strategy and direction, so rather than actually bringing these things through to a successful outcome the Conservative party is talking externally to itself and we’ve lost this entire summer.”
Owen Reidy is assistant general secretary of the Irish Congress of Trade Unions, which represents 750,000 workers across the island of Ireland, including 200,000 in the North and his primary responsibility is Northern Ireland.
“The clear message would be – and I think it will fall on deaf ears, given what I’ve heard from the three most prominent candidates, [Rishi] Sunak, [Penny] Mordaunt and [Liz] Truss, particularly Truss – that you need to reach an agreement, a compromise with the European Union and not act unilaterally.
“They’re all saying `We want to cut taxes’, they’re all saying the protocol Bill has to go through, but the realpolitik for whoever becomes the prime minister then has to be: how do we reach an agreement with the European Union to avoid a trade war?
“I’m not optimistic, but I do also realise they have to talk tough to the base for now.
“We don’t have a government at the moment and anything that perpetuates instability and anything that perpetuates division is not good for anyone in Northern Ireland, so the longer the protocol – which really should be a technical trade issue – the longer that manifests itself as a big identity issue the greater problem it is for everyone.
“For us the real priority, irrespective of who’s in government in Westminster, is devolved government in Northern Ireland
“Until we have that and until the protocol issue is put to bed, you’re going to have it as a divisive issue that is causing instability – and that’s hugely problematic – so the message would be: get into meaningful negotiations where you understand where the other side is, where you compromise; and see compromise as a positive strength, not a source of weakness.”
Roger Pollen is the head of the Federation of Small Businesses in Northern Ireland, which has about 6,000 members and represents 10,000-15,000 businesses in the North.
“The one message [to the leadership candidates] is to come and engage, engage seriously in advance of taking the job and understand what the problems and challenges are and work out what the potential solutions might be with business.
“It would be much better for them and for us if they engaged first and developed their ideas and their solutions in consultation with business in Northern Ireland rather than in isolation, because in some ways the protocol – and I suppose there are some of them who don’t yet realise this – the protocol is the whole keystone of their policy arch.
“It doesn’t really matter if you’re talking about low taxes and all the rest of it: that might appeal to your electorate, but the place you’ve got to govern needs to have a fix for the protocol, and if you don’t get that right then you damage your relations with the whole EU and quite quickly sour your relations with the US and your relations within these islands.”
Katy Hayward is professor of political sociology at Queen’s University Belfast and a senior fellow of the UK in a Changing Europe think tank, where she leads a major ESRC-funded project on the topic of the future and status of Northern Ireland after Brexit.
“Three-quarters of our respondents in our regular survey on the protocol said they wanted a negotiated outcome between the UK and the EU and that would be preferable to unilateral action.
“The key message consistently from business and the wider community is the need for certainty and stability and the protocol Bill certainly does not bring that; in fact, it leaves many more question marks over Northern Ireland’s trading status.
“I think there is a concern that you can see the message that has been put out about Northern Ireland and the protocol from the leadership candidates, and it’s this idea that the Good Friday Agreement is under threat from the protocol and that the EU hasn’t listened and hasn’t moved and this is, at one level, a negotiating tactic and on another it’s trying to bring stability to Northern Ireland.
“There are concerns around that, because we don’t know for sure that the DUP would go back in if the protocol Bill was passed. In fact, they say they need to see more detail as to the regulations that come in place of the protocol.
“There is also misinformation there about the process of the UK-EU relationship to date over the protocol and what the EU has offered. We see this narrative being put forward that is really divorced from the realities of the situation, and not being challenged.”
Stuart Anderson is head of public affairs at the Northern Ireland Chamber of Commerce and Industry, which represents 1,000 businesses.
“The protocol is clearly about more than trade, but, broadly speaking, the protocol is working for our exporting community and agri-food. Of course there are exceptions but it’s largely working, but we absolutely do need to look at how we protect the consumer.
“There is a concern that, if implemented, the Bill will shift a lot of the burden on to Northern Ireland businesses as they’d be assuming a lot of risk under the dual regulatory regime with an open land border.
“In essence, the existing framework is being amended in order to facilitate access by Great Britain to the Northern Ireland market, which may work for consumer-facing industries, but an all-encompassing dual regulatory regime is very problematic for the exporter and agri-food, for a myriad of reasons.
“There is a major exam question yet to be answered about how the Northern Ireland consumer can be protected under the protocol.
“The Bill is an attempt to do that but as a consequence it feels like we are facing an uphill battle in making the case for dual-market access over dual regulation for our exporters.”
Dr Evelyn Collins is chief executive of Equality Commission for Northern Ireland.
“Our key ask would be that government ensures the full and effective implementation of the commitment it made in article two of the protocol, which was a really important commitment the UK government made to no diminution of certain equality and human rights as a result of Brexit.
“In our recent independent survey, over half of the respondents were aware of the commitment and almost three-quarters – 72 per cent – said the commitment was important to them; so people in Northern Ireland understand the importance of government not rolling back on equality and rights.
“Interestingly, 42 per cent believed that equality and human rights had been reduced as a result of Brexit and over half were concerned they would be affected in the future; so there’s a concern about compliance.
“The government needs to ensure that when it’s bringing forward legislation the explanatory memorandum on those needs to set out carefully the consideration government has given to its article-two compliance.
“Looking at the protocol Bill itself, article two is afforded a degree of protection; and while we welcome that, we’re concerned that protection is incomplete. So we’ll be asking the prime minister to look at and make necessary amendments, particularly around interpretation and enforceability.”
